27.07.2026 12:50
Research conducted by ITÜ revealed that the most severe heatwaves of the last 75 years occurred in Turkey during the summers of 2023 and 2025. Experts stated that the heatwave magnitude increased to 11 times the historical average in 2025, and warned that in the second half of the century, the number of extremely hot days could rise to as many as 53 in cities like İzmir.
A study by researchers at Istanbul Technical University (ITU) covering the period from 1950 to 2025 has revealed the alarming magnitude of extreme heat in Turkey. The strongest heatwaves in the last 75 years occurred during the summers of 2023 and 2025, with the intensity in 2025 reaching exactly 11 times the historical average.
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN 75 YEARS
Research conducted by Prof. Dr. Barış Önol, faculty member of the ITU Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Climate Science and Meteorology Engineering, and Meteorology Engineer Tolga Karakaya, revealed a historic regime shift in the intensity of heatwaves across Turkey.
According to the results of the 'Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMId),' based on daily maximum temperature data:
- Summer 2023: The magnitude of heatwaves increased more than 7 times compared to the reference period.
- Summer 2025: Heatwave intensity rose to approximately 11 times the reference period, setting a record.
- Summer 2024: The average summer temperature hit a historic record of 26.1 degrees Celsius.
It was noted that average summer temperatures ranged between 22-23 degrees Celsius in the 1970-1990 period, but starting from the early 2000s, a rapid warming trend brought these values to 24-25 degrees Celsius levels.
RECORD TEMPERATURE DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN THE MOST INTENSE WAVE
The study revealed differences between 2024, the year with the highest average temperature, and 2023 and 2025, which saw the most intense heatwaves. Scientists emphasized that heatwaves are shaped by a combination of complex processes such as atmospheric blockages, sea surface temperatures, drought, and soil moisture.
FUTURE SCENARIO IS ALARMING
The study highlighted that the findings indicate a fundamental climate regime shift in Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, stressing the need for urgent adaptation strategies.
Future projections based on the pessimistic scenarios of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal the severity of the situation:
- 1976-2005 Period: In Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Konya, and Izmir, an average of only 3-5 days per year were affected by heatwaves.
- 2021-2050 Period: The number of extreme heat days is projected to increase to approximately 16 days in Istanbul, Ankara, and Konya; 18 days in Antalya; and 23 days in Izmir.
- 2051-2080 Period (Second Half of the Century): The number of heatwave days is expected to rise to about 38 days in Istanbul and Ankara; 40 days in Antalya and Konya; and a full 53 days in Izmir.