20.08.2026 15:30
Following the inflation forecasts of the Central Bank and the Market Participants Survey, the January 2027 salary increase rates for civil servants and retirees have been shaped. According to the new scenarios; while SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree increases are expected to again outpace those of civil servants, it has been calculated that the lowest civil servant salary will rise to 75,744 TL and the lowest retiree pension to 25,886 TL.
Calculations for the increase rates to be applied to retired and civil servant salaries in January 2027 have already begun. With the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) revising its inflation forecast upwards and market expectations becoming clearer, two different raise scenarios have come to the forefront. According to the new rates, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive a higher raise compared to civil servants, while the lowest civil servant salary is expected to exceed the 75,000 TL threshold.
Following the inflation and collective agreement increases made in July, attention has turned to the first month of the new year. In economic assessments emphasizing the legal basis for salary increases, it was stated, "According to our laws, retirees and civil servants receive salary increases twice a year. In these increases, inflation is the determining factor. While SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees receive an increase based on the last 6-month inflation, civil servants and retired civil servants receive an inflation difference in addition to the collective agreement increase."
CALCULATION DIFFERENCES ARE REFLECTED IN SALARIES
In analyses drawing attention to the reasons why the increase for SSK retirees was 6 points higher than for civil servants in July, the following statements were included: "Because the calculations are different, the increase rates for the two groups can sometimes vary. While the direct inflation rate is reflected for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, the collective agreement raise comes into play for civil servants and retired civil servants. Therefore, sometimes the result favors civil servants and sometimes favors SSK retirees."
Experts stating that a similar picture is expected in the upcoming raise period, said, "According to the calculations made, the increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will again be higher than for civil servants and retired civil servants. However, this time, the difference is calculated to be around 2 points."
INFLATION FORECASTS REVISED UPWARDS
The Central Bank revised its year-end inflation expectation, previously announced as 26 percent, upwards at its latest meeting, raising it to 28 percent. On the other hand, according to the Market Participants Survey published by the Central Bank, the year-end inflation forecast was recorded as 29.43 percent. In reports pointing to the 6-month inflation expectations shaped in light of these forecasts, the statements "According to these forecasts, when the 6-month inflation is calculated based on 28 percent, it is calculated as 8.7, and when calculated based on 29.43 percent, it is calculated as 9.91" were used.
TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR RAISE RATES
Detailed calculations on how the emerging rates will be reflected in salaries were also shared with the public:
- Scenario 1 (according to the 28% inflation forecast): It was stated that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees could receive an 8.7 percent raise, and civil servants and retired civil servants a 6.67 percent raise.
- Scenario 2 (according to the 29.43% market survey forecast): It was predicted that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees would receive an increase of 9.1 percent, and civil servants and retired civil servants an increase of 7.86 percent.
In the evaluations touching upon the increase formula for civil servants and retired civil servants, it was said, "Civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a 5 percent collective agreement increase in January. On top of this, the inflation exceeding the 7 percent raise in July will be added. According to the latest forecasts, this turns out to be 1.59 and 2.72 points, respectively."
LOWEST CIVIL SERVANT SALARY WILL EXCEED 75,000 LIRA
The issue of how the new rates will change salaries has also begun to become clear. It was calculated that the lowest civil servant salary, which rose from 61,890 lira to 70,224 lira as of July, would reach 75,744 lira in the first month of 2027 if the January raise is 7.86 percent. In the same scenario, it was noted that the lowest retired civil servant pension, which is 31,527 lira 77 kuruş, would reach 34,005 lira.
SSK AND BAĞ-KUR BASE PENSIONS WILL INCREASE
It was reported that increasing the base pension for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in January will also be on the agenda. It was stated that if this practice is resorted to again and the 9.91 percent increase is reflected, the lowest retiree pension payment will rise from 23,552 lira to 25,886 lira in January.