27.07.2026 13:20
Bitcoin is trading around $65,000 ahead of the Fed meeting scheduled for this week. Outflows from exchange-traded funds and ongoing geopolitical tensions are limiting the upside, as investors cautiously enter a busy week that includes interest rate decisions, inflation data, and earnings reports from major tech companies.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $65,336. Gaining approximately 1.5% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum rose 4.5% to reach $1,960, its highest level in seven weeks. Ethereum is encountering resistance at this level and has not seen above $2,000 since June 2. While BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, and Cardano recorded gains of up to 2%, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to approximately $2.3 trillion.
The market recovery was supported by easing tensions between the US and Iran. The US halted bombing on Friday after 13 nights of intense airstrikes. An Iranian official stated that they would also cease attacks as long as the US pauses its strikes. This development led to a decline in oil prices and a rise in US stock futures and the crypto market.
WEEKLY DATA CALENDAR HINGES ON FED DECISION
Investors' attention will be on a series of macroeconomic data releases throughout the week. On Tuesday at 17:00 Turkish time, the US consumer confidence index will be published. The most critical event of the week will come on Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, at 21:00 Turkish time, following its two-day meeting, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will signal policy direction in a press conference at 21:30.
Although markets lean towards rates remaining steady, they do not entirely rule out a hike. According to futures data, the probability of rates unchanged has fallen to 63.7%, while the probability of a hike has risen to 36.3%. The meeting takes place amid growing uncertainty over tech sector valuations, spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and the growth outlook. Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at an asset management firm, said the market feels "very frothy," with investors "walking on eggshells" and capable of reacting sharply to even the slightest disruption.
The data flow will continue on Thursday. The US second-quarter GDP data and the Fed's closely watched PCE inflation will be released on Thursday, July 30, at 15:30 Turkish time. The economy is estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 2.3% in the second quarter. The week will conclude on Friday at 17:00 Turkish time with the release of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations data.
In addition to the macro calendar, corporate earnings could also determine market direction. More than 15% of S&P 500 companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, will report their second-quarter results this week. These tech-heavy earnings are seen as a barometer of risk appetite and could also influence pricing in the crypto market.
ANALYSTS FOCUS ON $66,000 RESISTANCE
Bitcoin continues to face strong resistance above $66,000 and has been trading sideways in this region for about two months. Akshat Siddhant, chief quantitative analyst at Mudrex, noted that Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery after maintaining support above $63,000, but US spot Bitcoin funds closing the week with net outflows have limited the rally. According to Siddhant, broad macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are also keeping investors cautious.
A market desk at an exchange assessed that Bitcoin holding above $65,000 keeps the short-term structure positive, and a sustained break above $66,000 could open a path toward the $67,000 to $68,000 range. According to the desk, the Fed decision and geopolitical developments remain decisive. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, reminded that Bitcoin has risen about 13% from its low of $57,754 on July 1 to reach $65,160. According to Subburaj, the fact that net fund inflows last week remained only at $33.9 million explains why Bitcoin has not been able to turn this 13% recovery into a definitive upside breakout.