15.08.2025 07:43
Geoscientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür, who has made striking warnings about the expected major earthquake in Istanbul, stated, "Unfortunately, Istanbul is not ready. The intensity of this destruction will be most felt on the European side. Those living by the sea are enjoying the view, but the risks of acceleration and destruction in the event of a possible earthquake are much higher."
```html
Prof. Dr. Naci Görür, who participated in the talk organized by Ataşehir Municipality at the İnal Aydınoğlu Cultural Center to raise public awareness about earthquake risks, detailed the great danger awaiting Istanbul and the Marmara Region in his speech.
"THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARTHQUAKE OF AT LEAST 7.2 MAGNITUDE IN ISTANBUL IS VERY HIGH"
Stating that the North Anatolian Fault is one of the systems that produces the most earthquakes in Turkey and the world, Görür said, "Wherever this fault breaks, it targets the west for the next earthquake. It broke in Kocaeli in 1999, and we are to the west of it. The possibility of an earthquake of at least 7.2 magnitude in Istanbul is very high."
"THE PERIOD HAS EXPIRED, YOU CANNOT PREVENT THE EARTHQUAKE"
Emphasizing that the North Anatolian Fault produces a major earthquake approximately every 250 years, Görür stated, "The last major earthquake occurred in 1766. When you add 250 years, you reach 2016. In other words, the time for Marmara to produce an earthquake has expired. No matter how much you pray, you cannot stop this mechanism. Earthquakes occur with the unchangeable laws of nature."
"THE HIGHEST DAMAGE WILL BE ON THE EUROPEAN SIDE"
"The intensity of this destruction will be most felt on the European side. There will also be certain places on the Asian side where the earthquake intensity will be high. Let’s say it clearly. We will face an earthquake of around 8 or 9 in intensity. In a 9-magnitude earthquake, even the safest, healthiest buildings will be damaged. Even the healthiest buildings will be damaged. It is very rare not to be damaged in an earthquake."
"LIVING BY THE SEA IS RISKY"
Referring to Istanbul's ground map, Görür noted that especially the European side has young, water-saturated, and weak grounds that amplify earthquake waves. He expressed that the ground structure of the Asian side is relatively better, stating, "Those living by the sea on the European side enjoy the view, but the risks of acceleration and destruction in a possible earthquake are much higher."
"EARTHQUAKE-RESILIENT CITIES ARE THE ONLY SOLUTION, THIS IS NOT FATE BUT WEAKNESS"
Görür emphasized that while it is not possible to stop earthquakes, it is possible to prevent loss of life, stating that the solution lies in earthquake-resilient cities: "In Kamchatka, there was no loss of life in an earthquake that released energy 1,500 times greater than our earthquake. Because the people are responsible and honest, and the leaders act with science. Places like Japan, California, and Taiwan do not lose people in earthquakes. However, we bury thousands of our people alive. This is not fate, it is weakness."
"THE RESPONSIBILITY OF POLITICS AND THE PUBLIC"
Görür stated that the biggest obstacle to earthquake preparedness is the polarizing nature of politics and the lack of demand from the public, urging, "If we do not demand, nothing will change. We have voting power. Do not vote for politicians who do not promise earthquake-resilient cities."
"CONCRETE STEP RECOMMENDATIONS"
Görür stated that municipalities must urgently take action and suggested the establishment of a crisis team consisting of six coordinators. He mentioned that this team would include coordinators for the public, infrastructure, building stock, ecosystem, and economy, emphasizing that these individuals should work in the field 24/7, not just at a desk.
"LET'S NOT DECEIVE OURSELVES"
Görür expressed that individual measures against earthquake risk are not sufficient on their own, stating, "Measures like the life triangle and under-the-table precautions are important, but what will protect a country from earthquakes is long-term and science-based urban transformation."
"EARTHQUAKE IS LIFE ITSELF, YOU CANNOT STOP IT"
Prof. Dr. Görür concluded his remarks with this warning: "Earthquake is life itself. You cannot stop it. But with science and reason, love and solidarity, you can get through it without loss of life. This is a matter of survival that transcends politics. We will either act with this awareness or we will all pay the price of disaster together."
```