World trade is preparing for a new war with Trump's return.

Trump, who will take over the presidency from Joe Biden on January 20, 2025, is expected to have significant effects on the national economy and global trade with the economic plan promised in his election campaign under the "America First" strategy.

Despite making ambitious policy changes during his first term, Trump, who complained about the bureaucracy, is expected to implement his promises more quickly in the new term with the support of Republicans who hold the majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

DECLARATION OF ECONOMIC WAR AGAINST CHINA

Trump, who stated that his favorite word in the dictionary is "tariff," plans to significantly increase customs duties on imports, especially on products originating from China.

Trump is expected to impose a general customs duty of 10 to 20 percent on the United States' annual imports worth approximately 3 trillion dollars, while he claims he will apply a 60 percent customs duty on Chinese goods.

While Trump's protectionist trade policies aim to protect some domestic sectors in the U.S., there are concerns that they could increase consumer costs in the country.

It is predicted that potential trade measures could make the U.S. position in global trade more isolated, and these changes could lead to long-term fluctuations in the national economy.

RETALIATION MAY OCCUR TO TRUMP'S DECISIONS

It is noted that the protectionist policies planned by the Trump administration could weaken economic ties with allied countries. While it is anticipated that major trading partners of the U.S., such as the European Union (EU), may retaliate against Trump's tariff plan, it is expressed that this could lead to fragmentation in global trade and supply chains.

While retaliations are assessed to potentially lead to rising inflation in the global economy, Trump's economic team argues that the proposed tariffs will not increase inflation in the country. Trade partners of the U.S., especially China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, are preparing for possible steps by the Trump administration that could affect global trade.

THE WAR WILL DEEPEN

According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the trade deficit with China, which was approximately 387 billion dollars in 2018, decreased to 252 billion dollars last year, largely due to the impact of customs duties.

It is expected that the trade war with China, which had a significant impact during Trump's first term, will deepen in the new term, with an increase in tariffs imposed on the country, tightening of export restrictions, and especially an expansion of measures targeting the technology sector.

It is predicted that potential disagreements the White House may have with Beijing could also lead to disruptions in supply chains.

OTHER ASIAN ECONOMIES

The tariff plan that Trump is considering implementing poses risks not only for China but also for many Asian countries.

It is stated that if the scope of tariffs is expanded under the "America First" policy, some Asian countries may face new barriers to accessing the U.S. market.

Trump aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficits with his tariff policy. The U.S. has trade deficits with countries in the region, including Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, India, and Malaysia, in addition to China.

Last year, the trade deficit the U.S. had with Vietnam was 102.9 billion dollars, with Japan 66.2 billion dollars, with Taiwan 47.5 billion dollars, with India 45.6 billion dollars, with South Korea 40.8 billion dollars, and with Malaysia 25.5 billion dollars.

Therefore, these countries face the risk of encountering Trump's tariffs.

CHIP COMPETITION WILL ACCELERATE THE ECONOMIC WAR

On the other hand, it is expected that the "chip competition" between the U.S. and Asian countries will intensify under the Trump administration.

Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are prominent in chip production. Additionally, Trump accuses Taiwan of taking over almost the entire semiconductor industry in the U.S.

It is noted that Vietnam's electronic exports to the U.S. could also be targeted by Trump since they aim to stop the flow of Chinese electronic products to the U.S. through this country since 2018.

India may also become a target of Trump's protectionist policies due to the significant share of Chinese components in its products.

EUROPEAN UNION

The EU's increasing dependence on the U.S. market for exports is considered to make the union vulnerable to potential shocks caused by Trump's trade policies.

Last year, the trade deficit the U.S. had with the EU was at the level of 125 billion dollars.

Before the elections, Trump pointed to European countries, saying, "They are not buying our cars. They are not buying our farm products. They are selling millions of cars in the U.S. No, no, no, they will have to pay a big price." It is expected that Trump's return to the White House will pose significant difficulties for the EU.

U.S.-EU STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP AT RISK

It is assessed that the EU's support for Ukraine and green transition goals, along with the potential steps of the Trump administration that do not align with these policies, could jeopardize the strategic partnership and increase protectionist policies in trade relations.

It is expressed that Trump's imposition of customs duties on the EU could force Brussels to retaliate and lead to a mutual trade war.

Particularly in sectors with high export dependency to the U.S., such as the automotive industry, it is anticipated that stricter conditions may arise in trade agreements, and measures may be taken in the EU to prevent these industries from suffering further blows.

Germany, the largest economy in Europe, which had a trade deficit of 87 billion dollars with the U.S. last year, is also expected to be affected by Trump's protectionist policies.

CANADA AND MEXICO

Last year, the trade deficit the U.S. had with Canada was approximately 41 billion dollars, while with Mexico it was at the level of 162 billion dollars.

Trump's return to power and the implementation of new tariffs pose risks for these two neighboring and important trading partners of the U.S.

It is expected that the elected president of the country may use tariffs to pressure Mexico on immigration issues and adopt an aggressive stance during the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2026.

Imposing higher customs duties on imports from Mexico and Canada to protect U.S. industries could strain ties with these countries.

HOW WILL TURKEY BE AFFECTED?

Trump had used economic sanctions as a significant foreign policy tool during his first term. It is almost certain that he will use the same argument in the new term. Among the economic issues between the U.S. and Turkey are the customs duties imposed by the U.S. on Turkey, especially on steel and textile products. Turkey is expecting a reduction in these tariffs, but this expectation has not received a positive response so far.

Trump's escalation of strategic cooperation with European countries to a level that jeopardizes it, along with the increase in customs duties, will also have a negative impact on Turkey. The additional taxation imposed directly on Turkish products is likely to create an expectation of a further decrease in exports to the USA through third countries, albeit limited.