02.10.2025 18:24
After the 5-magnitude earthquake that occurred off the coast of Marmaraereğlisi district in Tekirdağ and was also felt in Istanbul, Geophysicist Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan stated, "This earthquake is not destructive; citizens should continue their normal lives. I do not expect a major earthquake until 2075."
The earthquake with a magnitude of 5 that occurred off the coast of Marmaraereğlisi in Tekirdağ and was felt in Istanbul prompted Geophysicist Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan to make statements that will soothe the hearts of citizens.
"THE REGION WAS ALREADY TENSE AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE ON APRIL 23"
Speaking on a live broadcast program, Ercan reminded that the activity in the earthquake zone is not new, stating, "Let me be very clear. There was an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2 in the same region on April 23, 2025. The 5.0 tremor experienced today shows that the tension in the region is still ongoing. However, this does not mean that a larger earthquake will come immediately."
"THIS IS NOT THE FORESHOCK OF A BIG EARTHQUAKE"
Prof. Dr. Ercan, who stated that the epicenter of the earthquake is between Marmaraereğlisi and Silivri, said that this line is one of the two expected earthquake points in Thrace. Ercan emphasized that this tremor is not the foreshock of the major earthquake expected on the North Marmara Fault, stating that the earthquake experienced is a normal movement.
"NOT A DESTRUCTIVE MAGNITUDE"
Despite causing panic in Istanbul, Ercan noted that the earthquake does not pose a significant risk technically, saying: "The earthquake is not destructive. When we look at the building stock in Istanbul, the destruction threshold starts with earthquakes of magnitude 6.4. Therefore, I think it is an exaggeration to even assess damage after a 5.3. Measures like setting up tents and closing schools are unnecessary."
"I DO NOT EXPECT A BIG EARTHQUAKE UNTIL 2075"
Making a striking prediction and sharing his long-term assessment, Ercan stated that he does not expect a major earthquake in the North Marmara region until the year 2075. He said, "Aftershocks can certainly last for a week or two, which is quite natural. But to say that a larger tremor will come immediately after this is not scientific."
"THE PUBLIC SHOULD NOT BE AFRAID, CONTINUE WITH THEIR LIVES"
Ahmet Ercan noted that the constantly mentioned 'big earthquake' narratives create unnecessary fear among the public, stating, "Yes, the public was shaken. But this is not a reason to live in constant fear. Children should go to school, workplaces should remain open. Normal life should continue. Such tremors occur from time to time in places like Marmara, where active fault lines exist."