23.04.2025 19:50
Geology Engineer Aysun Aykan stated that the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Sea of Marmara took place in the Central Marmara segment of the North Anatolian Fault, and she expressed, "We can say that the time for a rupture has come, and there is a potential to produce a major earthquake in the near future."
After the 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul, Geology Engineer Aysun Aykan stated that larger earthquakes could occur along the fault line, saying, "The time for a rupture has come; we can say that there is a potential to produce a large earthquake in the near future."
Following the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred off the coast of Silivri in Istanbul, experts made numerous assessments regarding the earthquake.
STRIKING ASSESSMENT FROM GEOLOGY ENGINEER AYKAN
Geology Engineer Aysun Aykan stated that the 6.2 magnitude earthquake felt in many provinces, especially Istanbul, occurred in the Middle Marmara segment of the North Anatolian Fault, which runs through the Sea of Marmara.
Recalling that a 5.8 magnitude earthquake occurred in the same place on September 26, 2019, Aykan noted that it is very significant for a 6.2 magnitude earthquake to occur in the same place six years later, and that the expected large Marmara earthquake will also occur in the Middle Marmara segment.
"A 7.5 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ON THE SAME FAULT ABOUT 300 YEARS AGO"
Geology Engineer Aysun Aykan reported that the major earthquake of 7.5 magnitude in 1766 was felt in many regions from Italy to Austria and caused destruction throughout Marmara. "This region is very important in terms of producing repeatable earthquakes; the recurrence of such an earthquake, considering the population density, will cause great destruction throughout the Marmara Region. There have been many earthquakes over 7 in the Sea of Marmara during historical periods, with the last major earthquakes occurring in 1509 and 1766. Considering that these earthquakes have an approximate recurrence period of 250 years, we can say that this area is a seismic gap, meaning the time for a rupture has come, and there is a potential to produce a large earthquake in the near future," she said.
"THIS FAULT CAN PRODUCE A MAXIMUM OF 7.6 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE"
According to historical earthquakes and studies conducted, Aykan stated that there could be an earthquake of over 7, with a maximum of 7.6 magnitude on this fault. "The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Middle Marmara segment is not the large Marmara earthquake we expect. We cannot definitively know how long it will be after a 6.2 magnitude earthquake before a large earthquake occurs; it could be a few hours later, a week later, or even 5 or 10 years later.
In conclusion, the location of the earthquake is very significant; therefore, I can say that there is a significant risk. We should not underestimate this earthquake. Aftershocks will continue for a while, and our citizens need to be cautious. It is especially beneficial for them to avoid entering buildings that have been damaged and to be careful," she stated.
"BOTH THE COST AND LOSSES WILL BE VERY HIGH"
Emphasizing that the earthquake should be the number one priority for Turkey, especially for the Marmara Region, Aykan continued her remarks as follows:
"This earthquake will not only affect Istanbul; it will severely impact all provinces bordering the Sea of Marmara: Istanbul, Balıkesir, Bursa, Yalova, Çanakkale, Kocaeli, and Tekirdağ. This earthquake will affect 28 million people. Since the Marmara Region is the most densely populated area in terms of population density, industry, economy, transportation, and historical heritage, a large earthquake here will significantly harm Turkey's economy. Therefore, we need to take this earthquake very seriously. There are approximately 6 million building stocks in the Marmara Region, which is a very large number. An earthquake in the Sea of Marmara could be over 7, with a maximum of 7.6 magnitude. Therefore, both the cost and losses of this earthquake will be very high."