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Global markets are performing positively after the Fed! Here is the latest situation in the dollar and euro.

Global markets are performing positively after the Fed! Here is the latest situation in the dollar and euro.

01.08.2024 11:30

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50 percent yesterday and signaled that it could start cutting interest rates at the September meeting. Following the Fed's announcement, global markets are performing positively. In domestic markets, the dollar started the day at 33.1740 lira, while the euro started at 36.0260 lira.

Global markets are following a positive trend with increased risk appetite after the US Federal Reserve's green light for interest rate cuts last night.

Although the Fed kept its policy rate stable at 5.25-5.50 percent yesterday, it signaled that it could start cutting interest rates at the September meeting. In the statement following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it was stated that inflation has declined but still remains somewhat high, and it was evaluated that "some progress has been made towards the Committee's 2 percent inflation target in recent months."

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in a press conference following the bank's interest rate decision, stated that if confidence in inflation increases and the labor market remains strong, a rate cut could be on the table in September. Powell, who stated that no decisions have been made about future meetings, said that the general view of the Committee is that "we are getting closer to the point where it would be appropriate to lower the policy rate."

While macroeconomic data, including the employment report to be announced on Friday, is being followed in the labor market, data released yesterday revealed that wage increases slowed down in line with signs of softening labor demand.

In the US, according to the data announced yesterday, private sector employment increased below market expectations in July, with 122,000 people. Annual wages during this period showed the slowest increase in the last 3 years, at 4.8 percent. Following these developments, the possibility of the bank making a total of 3 interest rate cuts this year continues to strengthen in pricing in the money markets.

META'S REVENUE IN THE 2ND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR INCREASED BY 22 PERCENT

Meanwhile, financial results announced during the earnings season are causing strong volatility in stock and sector prices. Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, saw its revenue increase by 22 percent and its net profit by 73 percent in the second quarter of this year. The company announced that it expects revenue between $38.5 billion and $41 billion in the third quarter. Following these results, the rise in the company's futures contracts draws attention.

Today, the financial results of Amazon and Apple are in focus for investors.

While an upward trend was observed in bond markets yesterday with the Fed's monetary policy decision and Powell's guidance, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.06 percent. The dollar index also fell to 104.

After rising 1.5 percent yesterday, the price of gold ounce decreased by 0.1 percent to $2,446 in the new day, while the price of Brent crude oil found buyers at $81.4 due to concerns that conflicts in the Middle East could spread to a wider area.

In the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq index rose by 2.64 percent, the S&P 500 index by 1.58 percent, and the Dow Jones index by 0.24 percent yesterday. Futures contracts for indices in the US also started the new day with an increase.

While an upward trend dominated in Europe yesterday, except for Italy, attention is now turned to the interest rate decision of the Bank of England (BoE). While it is certain that the BoE will keep its policy rate stable, it is expected that the policy text and the signals to be taken from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statements will increase volatility in asset prices.

The signals taken from the data announced in the region continue to make it difficult for asset prices. According to the data announced yesterday, inflation in the Eurozone exceeded expectations with an annual rate of 2.6 percent, and it is stated that the policy space of the European Central Bank (ECB) could narrow after the indicators indicating a slowdown in economic activity announced in the first half of the week.

Yesterday, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 1.13 percent, the CAC 40 index in France increased by 0.76 percent, and the DAX 40 index in Germany increased by 0.53 percent, the MIB 30 index in Italy recorded a decrease of 0.43 percent. Futures contracts for indices in Europe started the new day with an increase.

In Asian stock markets, an upward trend stands out today except for Japan, while selling pressure deepened in Japanese stock markets after the statements of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. After the BoJ raised its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.25 percent yesterday, Ueda stated that they are ready for further interest rate hikes if the data comes in line with expectations. This situation caused the downward trend in stock markets to reach 3 percent at one point, and the dollar/yen exchange rate tested the lowest level since March 15 at 148.51 in the new day.

On the other hand, according to the data announced today, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry in Japan decreased to 49.1, while it decreased to 49.8 in China. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.27 percent near the closing, while the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 0.5 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong increased by 0.2 percent, and the Shanghai Composite index in China increased by 0.1 percent.

DOMESTIC MARKETS

In the domestic market, the BIST 100 index on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, which moved in a downward trend yesterday, closed the day at 10,638.58 points with a 0.5 percent decrease compared to the previous closing. While the USD/TRY closed at 33.1421 with a 0.2 percent increase yesterday, it traded at 33.1740 at the opening of the interbank market today. The euro started the day at 36.0260 liras.

Analysts stated that today, manufacturing industry PMI data worldwide, the interest rate decision of the BoE, and unemployment data in the Eurozone will be followed, and from a technical perspective, the BIST 100 index has support at 10,600 and 10,500 points, and resistance at 10,800 and 11,000 levels.



 
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