Here is the biggest danger awaiting Lebanon after the Israeli attack!

The tension is escalating in the ongoing conflicts along the Israel-Lebanon border since October 8, 2023. Recently, the communication devices of Hezbollah elements in Lebanon exploded, followed by their radios. Israel caused the deaths of many people and injuries to thousands without firing a single shot in Lebanon. Following cyber attacks, Israel took action again when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah appeared before the cameras this evening. The Israeli army struck Lebanon while Nasrallah was speaking.

What does Israel's transfer of the war to Lebanon, after nearly a year of massacre in Gaza, mean for the geography? How will the Lebanon War affect Turkey? We discussed Israel's cyber attacks and the latest situation in the region, which has turned into a powder keg since October 7, with Terror and Security Expert Abdullah Agar.

WILL NASRALLAH ENTER THE WAR?

Both Iran and Hezbollah need to do something this time. I think they are currently trying to determine the dosage of their upcoming move. They are aware of the threat they are facing. Both Iran and Hezbollah want to continue the war of attrition against Israel within their capabilities. While they are trying to achieve a result from this, Israel is trying to draw them into its area of strength.

THE REAL DANGER AWAITING LEBANON: HEZBOLLAH WILL NOT ONLY FIGHT ISRAEL

If a war breaks out between Israel and Lebanon, I believe that a calculation involving the axes in Lebanon will shape the war. Lebanon has a complex structure composed of different religions, sects, and ethnicities. Since October 7, the West has seriously amassed ammunition in that region. They have gathered it for their allies. If this war breaks out, Hezbollah may have to confront not only Israel but also some axes within Lebanon. Perhaps a spirit of patriotism could emerge. However, I do not see this as very likely. I see a significant fracture in Lebanon as a more probable outcome.

"A CIVIL WAR IN LEBANON COULD BREAK OUT"

A civil war could break out in Lebanon. If such a thing happens, Syria and the entire geography will be affected. Syria is a geography where different powers intervene. This war will affect the irregular order in Syria. Instability will arise, and a struggle for survival will develop. It will be very risky. When the Lebanon war breaks out, especially Turkey will be greatly affected. The Syrian civil war was a difficult process for Turkey. Now, there is a war involving Israel, which is integrated with Lebanon and Gaza. There are very different axes here. The sects within Muslims will become active, hostilities will arise, groups on the ground will mobilize, and manipulating states will intervene. A very risky picture will emerge.

"THESE CYBER ATTACKS ARE MANIPULATIVE ATTACKS"

Iran and Hezbollah wanted to make people forget the effects that Israel has imposed on them. In other words, they wanted to make people forget the assassination of Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah's top commanders, and the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh. While Hezbollah was striving for this, cyber attacks occurred. This event is so significant. Just think about it: your women, your children, your soldiers had their fingers cut off, their eyes blinded. Hezbollah now has to do something. For its reputation, prestige, base, fighters, and geopolitical calculations. But it needs to do something in such a way that Israel does not have a reason to attack Hezbollah and Iran. This is very difficult. This situation creates a huge potential for tension. Israel is following a strategy of escalating tension. These cyber attacks are manipulative attacks. Israel wants Hezbollah and Iran to attack. It will use their attacks as justification. Netanyahu needs a crisis because that is how he can survive.

"THE ONLY THING THAT CAN STOP ISRAEL IS THE CUTTING OF SUPPORT FROM THE US"

Only the US can stop Israel, but it is not stopping. It says it is not on their side but continues to support them. If those who provide weapons and equipment to Israel were to cut this support, Israel could be stopped. But they continue to support Israel. There is military and political support for Israel as well. This also needs to be cut, but that is not on the table.