31.03.2026 18:52
According to SETA's analysis, the war that has begun between the US/Israel and Iran could seriously pressure the Turkish economy through energy prices, foreign trade, and financial markets; the most critical risk is the increasing tension in the Strait of Hormuz.
SETA, in an analysis published on March 28, 2026, signed by Murat Aslan, pointed out that the war that has begun between the US/Israel and Iran has turned into a crisis that could shake not only military but also global economic balances.
The conflicts that started on February 28, 2026, quickly expanded to target energy infrastructures, oil terminals, and international maritime trade routes, causing geopolitical risks centered in the Middle East to rapidly reflect on global markets. The analysis emphasized that the pressure on energy supply and logistics lines could have serious consequences for the world economy.
HORMUZ STRAIT ALARMING
Iran's statements regarding the inability to guarantee the safety of commercial vessels passing through the Hormuz Strait have increased uncertainty in the global energy and trade system. The security risks experienced at this critical transit point, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil trade passes, directly affect not only energy markets but also the flow of international trade.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also warned that the ongoing conflict could create a serious supply shock in global energy markets. In the early days of the war, a decrease in ship traffic and disruptions in transportation were observed as Iran began to use the Hormuz Strait as a strategic pressure point.
THREE CRITICAL RISK AREAS FOR TURKEY
According to the SETA analysis, the effects of the war on the Turkish economy are grouped under three main headings:
- Rising energy prices and production costs
- Pressure on financial markets and economic expectations
- Possible disruptions in foreign trade and logistics lines
It is stated that these developments could directly affect Turkey's commercial relations, especially with Gulf countries.
EXPORT DECLINE RISK
While there has been a significant increase in the trade volume between Turkey and Gulf countries in recent years; it is noted that Turkey has reached a strong supplier position in the industrial products, machinery equipment, consumer goods, and food sectors.
However, it is assessed that Turkey's exports to the Gulf and Iran, which reached approximately 16.9 billion dollars by 2024, could be disrupted due to the security risks experienced in the Hormuz Strait.
SECTORAL VULNERABILITIES ON THE TABLE
The analysis also included detailed assessments of which sectors and markets are more vulnerable in Turkey's exports within the framework of war scenarios. It is predicted that if the conflict deepens, there could be a contraction in Turkey's trade with the region, which could put pressure on economic growth.