13.11.2025 20:14
In 2026, the borrowing rates are expected to rise from 32% to 45%, and the anticipated 25% increase in the minimum wage will increase the cost for those who will borrow for retirement by approximately 78%. It is projected that a loan of 100,000 TL today will rise to 178,000 TL at the beginning of 2026. Experts state that those who apply by December 31, 2025, will be able to lock in the current rates and avoid this difference.
The new rates that will come into effect in 2026 in the field of social security will affect hundreds of thousands of people planning to retire by borrowing. According to Dünya Gazetesi writer Özgür Erdursun, the increase in borrowing rates and the expected rise in the minimum wage will increase costs by approximately 78%.
BORROWING RATES WILL INCREASE IN 2026
The current borrowing rate, which is applied at 32%, will rise to 45% in many categories by 2026. Although it may seem like only a "13-point increase" on the surface, the actual cost difference reaches 41%.
MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE READY TO MULTIPLY COSTS
A minimum wage increase of at least 25% is expected at the beginning of 2026. Since borrowing amounts are directly linked to the minimum wage, this increase will further raise total costs.
According to Erdursun's analysis, the combined effect is:
- 41% rate difference
- 25% minimum wage increase
- Total cost increase of 78% due to the combined effect
A borrowing of 100,000 TL today is expected to rise to 178,000 TL at the beginning of 2026.
WHICH BORROWINGS WILL BE AFFECTED?
Borrowings with increased rates:
- Military service
- Education / doctorate / specialization in medicine
- Lawyer internship
- Detention / custody
- Unpaid leave periods
- Reinstatement of Bağ-Kur
Borrowings with fixed rates but increased costs:
- Birth borrowing
- Foreign borrowing
Although the rates in these categories will not change, the increase in the minimum wage will raise costs.
WHY IS DECEMBER 31, 2025 A CRITICAL DATE?
According to Erdursun, for everyone applying within the year 2025, both the current borrowing rate and today's minimum wage level will be fixed.
Thus:
- Will not be affected by the 41% rate increase
- The minimum wage increase will not come into effect
- Will avoid an additional cost of up to 78%
In other words, an application made today prevents a difference of 78,000 TL that will be paid tomorrow.
WARNING OF SALARY LOSS FOR THOSE DELAYING RETIREMENT UNTIL 2026
The Central Bank's inflation forecast for 2025 is in the range of 31-33%. In light of this data:
- SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees are expected to receive a 13-14% increase
- Public sector retirees are expected to receive a 19-20% increase.
However, it is stated that those who delay their retirement until 2026 may experience a loss of between 2-5% due to the growth coefficient used in their salary calculations.
"COSTS WILL INCREASE IRREVERSIBLY FOR THOSE WHO ARE LATE"
Erdursun's warning is clear: 2026 will be the year when borrowing costs peak. Therefore, applying by December 31, 2025, is crucial for those planning to retire.