Oil's anticipated decline may also pull down fuel prices.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its oil price forecast for next year downward.

According to EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook Report for December 2024," it is expected that the price of Brent crude oil per barrel will follow a trajectory close to current levels, assuming that markets will remain relatively balanced on an annual basis next year.

It is anticipated that the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producer countries, will increase its production to new target levels throughout 2025, while global oil stocks are expected to remain close to current levels by the end of the year.

STOCKS WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH PRODUCTION

With OPEC+ cuts, it is estimated that stocks will decrease by approximately 700,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, but will increase by about 100,000 barrels per day for the remainder of the year due to production increases from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+. With these increases, it is calculated that the price of Brent oil per barrel will remain below this year's average level of $80 in 2025.

Accordingly, the average price of Brent oil per barrel is expected to be $73.58 next year. This figure was previously estimated at $76.06 in the last report. The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is also projected to be $69.12. This figure was calculated at $71.60 last month.

AVERAGE PRICE FORECAST WAS $80.49

EIA has also revised the average price of Brent oil per barrel for this year downward to $80.49, and WTI crude oil to $76.51. According to the report, the main risks for prices are highlighted as conflicts in the Middle East and the commitment of OPEC+ members to production cuts.

U.S. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION

In the U.S., the average daily crude oil production is expected to be approximately 13 million 240 thousand barrels this year. This figure was recorded as approximately 12 million 930 thousand barrels last year. It is estimated that production will rise to 13 million 520 thousand barrels in 2025. In last month's report, the figures were estimated at 13 million 230 thousand barrels for this year and 13 million 530 thousand barrels for next year. Global oil supply is projected to be 102 million 590 thousand barrels per day this year and 104 million 240 thousand barrels per day next year. On the other hand, global oil consumption is expected to be 103 million 30 thousand barrels per day this year and 104 million 320 thousand barrels per day next year.

HOW ARE FUEL PRICES CALCULATED?

In Turkey, when calculating gasoline and diesel prices; the refinery sales price excluding VAT is found by adding the excise tax (ÖTV) and the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) share to the duty-free refinery price.

When calculating the Duty-Free Refinery Price, daily CIF Mediterranean product prices published in the Mediterranean-Italian market and the daily Dollar exchange rate are monitored, and a duty-free refinery ceiling sales price is obtained based on a certain price change difference.