14.02.2025 10:41
According to the results of the Central Bank's February Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation rose from 27.05% to 28.30%. The dollar/TL exchange rate expectation decreased to 42.89, while the interest rate expectation declined.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced the results of the Market Participants Survey for February. According to the survey, while the year-end inflation expectation of the participants increased, the dollar/TL forecast decreased.
INFLATION EXPECTATION INCREASED
According to the survey results, the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation rose from 27.05% in January to 28.30% in February.
The 12-month ahead CPI expectation slightly decreased from 25.38% to 25.26%, while the 24-month ahead CPI expectation fell from 17.72% to 17.26%.
DOLLAR/TL EXPECTATION DECREASED
The year-end dollar/TL exchange rate expectation of the participants decreased from 43.03 in January to 42.89 in February. The 12-month ahead dollar/TL exchange rate forecast was updated from 43.81 in January to 43.96 in the February survey.
INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION DECREASED
The Central Bank's three-month ahead expectation for the one-week repo auction interest rate (policy rate) fell from 40.91% to 40%. In the survey, the growth expectation for 2025 decreased from 3.1% to 3%, while the growth forecast for 2026 remained stable at 3.9%.
PARTICIPANT PROFILE
The Market Participants Survey, conducted monthly, is carried out with a total of 72 participants, including 54 representatives from the financial sector and 18 representatives from the real sector.