14.10.2025 17:05
In January 2026, a salary increase of 16-18% for civil servants and retirees is expected, along with a base difference of 1,000 TL. It is anticipated that there will be no across-the-board raise this year as well. Given the rising costs of food and housing, this increase is considered insufficient to maintain purchasing power.
As of September 2025, the announced CPI rate is 3.23 percent, while the three-month cumulative increase has been announced as 7.5 percent. In line with this data, a 13.64 percent increase in civil servant salaries and a base difference of 1,000 TL have already been confirmed. According to year-end inflation expectations, the January 2026 raise is expected to occur in the range of 16.5 to 18.5 percent. This rate means a raise close to inflation for both civil servants and retirees.
"CITIZENS ARE STILL GROANING AT THE SUPERMARKET CHECKOUT"
SGK Chief Expert İsa Karakaş drew attention to the economic picture in his evaluation. Karakaş stated, "The increase in basic food and housing prices has seriously reduced purchasing power. Citizens are still groaning at the supermarket checkout," he said.
SOME PUBLIC PRICE INCREASES MAY BE POSTPONED
Reminding that the government has an inflation target of below 30 percent for the end of 2025, Karakaş noted that the official target is 28.5 percent, while the expectation in the TCMB Market Participants Survey is 29.86 percent. Karakaş, who said, "As long as it does not exceed 30 percent," mentioned that some public price increases could be postponed in the last quarter, and this situation could affect the final rate of the January raise.
"AFTER 2008, CIVIL SERVANTS..."
In his statements, Karakaş also referred to civil servants in the new system. He emphasized that civil servants who joined the SGK system after 2008 would not be able to retire before 2033. Therefore, Karakaş stated that his analysis was based on "old system" civil servant retirees, expressing that the new regulation means a longer working period for young civil servants.
EXPECTATIONS FOR A GENERAL RAISE HAVE DECREASED
With the inflation data for November and December, the January raise will become completely clear. However, according to the current picture, a salary increase of between 16-18 percent and a base difference of 1,000 TL are almost confirmed. Regarding the general raise, Karakaş stated, "It seems that expectations will not be met this year as well."
According to experts, the salary increase of up to 18 percent may be insufficient to compensate for real losses in the face of rising food and housing costs. It is also being discussed that the government may work on additional tax regulations or support packages after the January raise.