The markets were eagerly awaiting! Here is the Central Bank's year-end dollar and inflation forecast.

16.06.2025 10:30

The Central Bank has published the results of the Market Participants Survey for June. According to the survey, the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 has decreased to 29.86%, while the dollar forecast has fallen to 43.57.

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The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has shared the results of the Market Participants Survey for June with the public. In the survey conducted with 69 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors and professionals, a limited improvement was observed in inflation and exchange rate expectations.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE DECREASED

The year-end inflation expectation of the participants fell from 30.35% in the previous month to 29.86%.

Additionally:

• The CPI expectation for 12 months later decreased from 25.06% to 24.56%.
• The CPI expectation for 24 months later dropped from 17.77% to 17.35%.

These data indicate that a positive trend has begun in the medium-term inflation expectations of market participants.

MIXED OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR/TRY EXPECTATIONS

Exchange rate expectations were reshaped in the survey. Accordingly:

• The year-end dollar/TRY expectation for 2025 decreased from 43.70 in the previous survey to 43.57.
• The dollar exchange rate expectation for 12 months later increased from 46.62 to 47.04.

These data show that there is an upward expectation for the exchange rate in the short term, while a more cautious optimism emerges for the year-end.