06.06.2026 14:31
As July approaches, the excitement in the race for raises in civil servant and retiree salaries has peaked. Özgür Erdursun, an SGK expert known for his accurate predictions in previous periods, announced that he foresees a 18 percent raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and a 14 percent raise for civil servants and retired civil servants, in line with 6-month inflation expectations.
With the approach of July, the countdown has begun in the salary increase marathon, where millions of civil servants and retirees are paying close attention. Social Security Institution (SGK) Expert Özgür Erdursun, known for his accurate predictions in previous periods, shared his expectations regarding the July 2026 raise and the net figures he calculated with the public.
CALCULATIONS DEPEND ON JUNE INFLATION
The June inflation data to be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) is awaited to determine the net raise rate for salaries. In a broadcast on his own YouTube channel, Özgür Erdursun evaluated the current situation and reminded that according to the 5-month data announced by TÜİK, the inflation rate is 16.60 percent. Erdursun stated that based on the current picture, the inflation difference for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees has been finalized at 16.60 percent, and for civil servants and retired civil servants at 12.40 percent.
HERE ARE ERDURSUN'S RAISE PREDICTIONS
Sharing his June inflation forecasts and shedding light on the finalized 6-month figures, Erdursun used the following statements: "An inflation rate of 1.7 percent was announced in May. In June, we expect an even lower inflation rate, between 1.3 and 1.5 percent. Based on these possibilities, we predict that the 6-month inflation will be between 18.1 and 18.3 percent, i.e., around 18 percent. For civil servants and retired civil servants, it will be around 13.85 percent, so we can say 14 percent."
According to these predictions, the expert's July raise estimates took shape as follows:
- SSK and Bağ-Kur Retirees: 18%
- Civil Servant and Retired Civil Servant: 14%
CRITICAL WARNING FOR THE LOWEST RETIREMENT PENSION
Özgür Erdursun also made a striking prediction and warning regarding the lowest retirement pension, which concerns millions of people. Stating that the lowest retirement pension, currently applied as 20,000 TL, is expected to rise to approximately 23,620 TL according to formulas, Erdursun emphasized the need for a legal regulation: "The lowest pensions do not automatically increase at the announced inflation rate. If no increase is made to the lowest supplemented pension through a legal regulation, these pensions will continue to remain at 20,000 TL."
Erdursun also added that these raises will not be sufficient to preserve retirees' purchasing power under current economic conditions.