04.09.2026 15:02
Following the announced first two months of inflation data, 4 different economic expectation scenarios for the January 2027 raise rates have become clear. According to institutional forecasts and market surveys, the raise rates for civil servants and retirees are expected to be between 6.67 percent and 10.8 percent, with the lowest civil servant salary projected to exceed the 76 thousand TL threshold in the highest scenario.
Following the inflation data for July and August, the first two months of inflation for the second half of the year stood at 3.66 percent. According to four different scenarios shaped in line with market expectations, the possible raise rates and the minimum salary table for civil servants and retirees in January 2027 have been calculated.
With the inflation figures announced as 1.78 percent in July and 1.84 percent in August, the total inflation for the first two months of the second half of the year reached 3.66 percent. The inflation figures for September, October, November, and December are expected to be announced for the definitive raise rate that civil servants and retirees will receive at the beginning of 2027. Following this four-month critical data, the net amounts that will go into the pockets of millions of citizens will become official.
WHAT ARE THE BASIC CRITERIA IN RAISE CALCULATIONS?
According to social security legislation, the formulas applied to salary increases for retirees and civil servants differ.
- SSK and Bağ-Kur Retirees: For salary increases, the total 6-month inflation rate realized in the second half of the year (July-December) is directly taken as the basis.
- Civil Servants and Civil Servant Retirees: A different mechanism applies to salary increases. In addition to the 5 percent collective bargaining raise, the inflation difference that occurs is added to the salaries of citizens in this group.
In current calculations based on year-end inflation expectations, it is predicted that raise rates may vary between 6.67 percent and 10.8 percent.
LIST OF JANUARY 2027 CIVIL SERVANT AND RETIREE SALARY ESTIMATES
In line with economic expectation surveys and institutional forecasts, the possible raise rates expected to be valid in January 2027 and the minimum salary table are as follows:
1. Central Bank Estimate
- Year-End Inflation: 28 percent
- Raise Rate for Civil Servants and Civil Servant Retirees: 6.67 percent
- Raise Rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur: 8.7 percent
- Lowest Civil Servant Salary: 74,908 TL
- Lowest Civil Servant Retiree: 33,630 TL
- Lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur: 25,601 TL
2. Market Participants Survey
- Year-End Inflation: 29.43 percent
- Raise Rate for Civil Servants and Civil Servant Retirees: 7.86 percent
- Raise Rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur: 9.91 percent
- Lowest Civil Servant Salary: 75,744 TL
- Lowest Civil Servant Retiree: 34,005 TL
- Lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur: 25,886 TL
3. AA Finance Expectation Survey
- Year-End Inflation: 29.49 percent
- Raise Rate for Civil Servants and Civil Servant Retirees: 7.91 percent
- Raise Rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur: 9.97 percent
- Lowest Civil Servant Salary: 75,779 TL
- Lowest Civil Servant Retiree: 34,021 TL
- Lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur: 25,900 TL
4. Financial Institutions Association Estimate
- Year-End Inflation: 30.47 percent
- Raise Rate for Civil Servants and Civil Servant Retirees: 8.73 percent
- Raise Rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur: 10.8 percent
- Lowest Civil Servant Salary: 76,355 TL
- Lowest Civil Servant Retiree: 34,279 TL
- Lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur: 26,096 TL