29.05.2026 09:51
UBS, one of the world's largest investment banks, has revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 downward. The bank noted that high interest rates and a strong dollar are putting pressure on gold, while emphasizing that geopolitical risks and central bank purchases will continue to support a rise in the long term.
UBS, one of the world's leading investment banks, has revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 downward. The bank stated that high interest rates and a strong dollar are putting pressure on gold, while maintaining its long-term bullish outlook.
GOLD FORECAST REDUCED TO $5,500 PER OUNCE
Switzerland-based investment bank UBS lowered its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $5,500 per ounce from $5,900. UBS analysts Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon said that high US bond yields and a strong dollar have dampened investor interest in gold.
“OPPORTUNITY COST” EFFECT
According to the analysts, markets are refocusing on the concept of “opportunity cost.” Gold, which offers no interest income, becomes less attractive to investors in a high real-interest-rate environment, leading to a slowdown in demand for gold in ETF and futures markets.
LONG-TERM BULLISH OUTLOOK REMAINS
Despite short-term pressures, UBS believes the long-term upward trend in gold is not over. The bank predicts that gold could end the year approximately $1,000 higher than current levels and noted that if a more neutral monetary policy environment emerges in 2027, investors may turn back to gold.
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS PROVIDE SUPPORT
UBS Commodity Analyst Giovanni Staunovo also said that geopolitical risks stemming from Iran continue to exert upward pressure on commodity markets. Staunovo noted that tensions in Iran and risks related to the Strait of Hormuz are increasing volatility in oil prices and commodity markets.
CENTRAL BANKS AND ASIAN DEMAND STAND OUT
The UBS report emphasized that continued gold purchases by central banks, strong jewelry demand in Asia, and investors shifting to alternative assets outside the dollar are key factors supporting gold prices. The analysts stated that if global uncertainties persist, gold will remain an important safe haven in investment portfolios.