The turning point for gold prices is tonight.

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The safe haven gold is in search of direction. The price of gold per gram started at 3007 TL on the morning of January 8, 2025, while the ounce of gold began at 2646 dollars. However, prices are focused on the FED minutes to be announced today.

DOES THE HAWKISH SCENARIO CREATE A RISK OF COLLAPSE?

Experts comment that if "hawkish" messages come from the Fed minutes, selling pressure on gold prices may increase. On the other hand, the purchases made by the People's Bank of China to increase its gold reserves and the uncertainty regarding the policies that Donald Trump will follow after taking the presidential seat in the USA continue to be one of the most important factors supporting gold prices upwards. Opinions are emerging that 2025 will be "more difficult" than last year and that gold premiums will "remain lower."

CHINA IS FILLING THE SAFE WITH GOLD

Amid expectations that the FED may make fewer interest rate cuts in 2025, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 ounce gold forecast from 3000 dollars to 2910 dollars. In contrast, according to the latest statement from the People's Bank of China, the country's gold reserves increased from 72.96 million ounces last month to 73.29 million ounces. These purchases by China continue to be an important factor limiting the decline in gold prices.

OUNCE GOLD PRICE

The ounce of gold is maintaining its level close to 2648 dollars in the morning hours. In this environment, the short-term support for ounce gold is 2625 dollars, while resistance is at 2665 dollars. The dollar index is showing a strong appearance above the level of 108.50.

GRAM GOLD PRICE

In the free market, the price of gram gold is trading at 3007 TL, while the buying-selling range at jewelers in the Grand Bazaar is between 3015-3055 TL. The quarter gold is sold at 4,995 TL in the morning hours, half gold at 9,990 TL, and full gold at 19,900 TL.

CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE SAFE HAVEN

The levels to be monitored for gold in the short term are as follows:

Ounce gold: 2625 dollars support, 2665 dollars resistance. It is noted that if the US employment data comes weak, the resistance of 2665 dollars may be exceeded.

Gram gold: 2975 TL stands out as a critical support level.

While ounce gold recorded a 1% premium in the first week of the new year, the impact of the economic data to be announced this week on prices is eagerly awaited.

DOLLAR STARTED THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE

The Dollar/TL is trading at 35.3730 after starting the day with an increase. The dollar/TL, which moved in an upward trend yesterday, closed the day at 35.3380, 0.1% above the previous close. As of 10:30, the dollar/TL is trading at 35.3730, with a 0.1% increase. At the same time, the euro/TL is trading sideways at 36.5810, while the pound/TL is sold at 44.1220, down 0.1%.

The dollar index is at 108.7, with a 0.1% increase. Global markets are moving negatively following the statements made by Donald Trump, who was elected president in the USA. While the dilemma of inflation and recession continues to complicate pricing, Trump's statements regarding the steps he will take during his presidency are also causing an increase in risk perception in the markets.

Concerns are rising that Trump's statements and potential tariffs could negatively affect the fight against inflation in the USA, supporting the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may pause its easing process until the second half of the year. In market pricing, it is predicted that the bank will make its first interest rate cut of the year with a 60% probability in May, while if no cut is made in May, a rate cut is expected to be certain in the June meeting.

Analysts state that signals regarding the upcoming period will be sought in the Fed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes to be announced today, and that the results of the ADP private sector employment data may also have an impact on the direction of the markets. Analysts note that today, the domestic treasury cash balance and abroad, the Eurozone PPI and the ADP private sector employment data, along with a busy data agenda, will be followed, as well as the Fed meeting minutes, and technically, the 109 level is noted as resistance and the 108 level as support in the dollar index.