26.01.2026 16:20
In Turkey, the total fertility rate was 2.1 in 2009, but it is expected to decline to 1.36 by 2025, representing a decrease of approximately 35%. President Erdoğan had previously described this situation in a statement as "an existential threat, a disaster for Turkey."
The decline in birth rates in Turkey presents an alarming picture in terms of demographic structure. The total fertility rate falling significantly below the 2.1 level necessary for the population to renew itself raises concerns about long-term population balances.
WARNING FROM EXPERTS
According to experts, if the current trend continues, the proportion of the elderly population will rapidly increase in the coming years, and there will be a parallel risk of contraction in the workforce.
HISTORICAL DECLINE IN THE WEST AND BLACK SEA
Fertility rates in the Marmara, Aegean, and Black Sea regions have dropped to the range of 1.2–1.5. In large and industrialized provinces such as Istanbul, Izmir, Edirne, and Zonguldak, the number of children is seriously far from the population renewal threshold. The decline in these regions is cited as one of the most important factors pulling down the Turkish average.
INNER ANATOLIA AND MEDITERRANEAN AT A CRITICAL THRESHOLD
In the Inner Anatolia and Mediterranean regions, some provinces are hovering in the range of 1.6–1.9, being at a critical limit. Experts state that the decline in these regions is progressing more slowly, but if the current trend continues, population loss will be inevitable in the medium term.
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE LAST RESORT
The Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia regions still have fertility rates of 2.5 and above, placing them above the national average. However, it is noted that there has been a significant decline in these regions compared to previous years.
WHAT DOES THE 2.1 THRESHOLD REPRESENT?
According to experts, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered the minimum level required for a society to maintain its population stable in the long term. The Turkish average falling below this line means that the population will age in the long term and that the total population will enter a trend of decline.
ERDOĞAN: AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has previously pointed out the decline in birth rates in his statements, describing this situation as "an existential threat, a disaster for Turkey." Erdoğan emphasized that despite the increase in the number of individuals preferring to live alone and the rising divorce rates, marriage and fertility rates have declined, and the birth statistics for 2023 are concerning.