10.08.2026 13:21
With the rise in oil prices, a prediction that will be much discussed has come regarding fuel prices, which have been receiving hikes every other day. Industry representatives, pointing out that the high trend in gasoline and diesel prices will continue, said that the liter price of gasoline and diesel could exceed 100 TL in the second half of 2027.
Uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz has led to increases in Brent crude oil and the prices of gasoline and diesel in global markets. In Turkey, within the last few years, the price of a liter of gasoline has exceeded 70 lira and diesel 80 lira.
Cemil Direkci, Chairman of the Board of Termopet, one of Turkey's leading fuel distribution companies, answered questions about the fuel sector. Direkci reminded that the eşel mobil system was implemented for fuel in March, immediately after the war between the US and Iran, and that a portion of the need for price increases was met through the Special Consumption Tax (SCT).
"DISCOUNTS WILL NOT BE REFLECTED AT THE PUMP FOR A WHILE"
Noting that a new eşel mobil decision was published in the Official Gazette on July 3, Direkci said, "According to this, 25% of the price increases are covered by the SCT, and the remaining 75% is reflected in pump sales prices. If a discount comes up, all of it is offset against the SCT. Pump sales prices do not change. Last Friday, a discount of 4 lira 35 kuruş on gasoline was deducted from the SCT."
Cemil Direkci stated that discounts will not be reflected at the pump for a while longer, adding that deductions will continue until the SCT level returns to that before March for gasoline and diesel, and that pump sales prices will not change.
"WILL A LITER OF FUEL COST 100 LIRA?"
Asked whether a liter of fuel might reach 100 lira by 2027 given the high level of prices, Direkci said the following:
"Almost certainly. Frankly, when you look, inflation this year is estimated to be around 30%. The dollar exchange rate needs to rise in parallel with inflation. It is coming slightly behind. Let's also make the inflation forecast for 2027 together. At best, it will be 20%. There will also be increases in the SCT on fuel. After the war, there won't be a tremendous drop in fuel prices either. Part of any decreases will also go to the SCT. In the second half of 2027, it is likely that we will see three-digit figures for both gasoline and diesel. It is likely we will see it, if not in July of next year, then in the second half."
"DIESEL CONSUMPTION IS DECLINING"
Noting that they have observed a decrease in diesel consumption over the last few months, Direkci said, "There is a slight slowdown in diesel. Diesel consumption is a direct mirror of commercial activity. Diesel is also used extensively in agriculture and transportation. There is a slowdown in commercial activities. The effect of disinflation policies is seen in this regard. The fact that prices have risen so much may have accelerated this a bit."
"THE RICH ARE MORE COMPLAINTIVE"
Responding to a question about the evaluations or reactions of citizens coming to stations regarding fuel prices, Direkci said that citizens quickly adapt to every situation. Direkci commented, "The rich complain more than those with low incomes. I attribute this to the fact that they follow economic developments much more quickly. Citizens below a certain income level have now accepted the situation. I think they are in a 'whatever happens' mode."
"THOSE WHO ALWAYS BOUGHT 50 LIRA WORTH HAVE STARTED BUYING 500 LIRA WORTH"
In previous years, some citizens, in response to questions about fuel price increases, would say, "I always buy 50 lira worth of gasoline or diesel" to normalize the situation. Within the last few years, the price of a liter of gasoline has exceeded 70 lira and diesel 80 lira. Responding to a question on this subject, Direkci said, "Instead of 50 lira worth, they now buy 500 lira worth. The new standard is 500 lira instead of 50 lira."