05.02.2025 11:31
The Bitcoin market is being shaken by the tightening liquidity of the USD, the uncertain BTC reserve plans of the Trump administration, and the downward trend in the RSI indicator. The uncertainty created by these factors is unsettling investors.
The recent high volatility of Bitcoin is raising concerns among investors. The tightening of liquidity in the US Dollar, uncertainties in the Trump administration's BTC reserve plans, and negative signals in technical analysis are creating serious questions about the future of BTC.
How Does USD Tightening and Trump's BTC Policies Affect the Markets?
The upward trend exhibited by Bitcoin since 2023 has been shaped by regular price increases followed by periods of consolidation. Each consolidation period has laid the groundwork for the next rise of the cryptocurrency. Currently, the price movements ranging between 90,000 and 110,000 dollars represent the third phase of the overall upward trend. However, despite the positive atmosphere in the market, some recent developments are sending concerning signals.
The contraction in US Dollar liquidity stands out as the first significant risk factor. According to MacroMicro's data, the amount of dollars in the US Treasury Department's (TGA) account at the US Central Bank (Fed) has risen from 623 billion dollars to 800 billion dollars in the last month. This increase could lead to consequences such as a slowdown in economic activity and rising borrowing costs. In such an environment, all risky investment instruments, including Bitcoin, may come under pressure.
The second concerning development is the Trump administration's ambiguous stance on Bitcoin reserves. Since taking office, Trump has implemented many of his promises, but his plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve has yet to materialize into concrete steps. According to CNBC, Trump's crypto advisor stated that one of the primary goals of the newly formed working group is to assess the feasibility of a Bitcoin reserve.
Finally, technical indicators are also causing unease. The 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is repeating the downward trend seen during the peak period in 2021. This situation shows a discrepancy with current price levels and indicates that the upward momentum is weakening. However, if the RSI breaks its downward trend, the negative indicator may lose its validity, and a new wave of increase could begin.
All these developments indicate that Bitcoin investors need to adopt a more careful analysis and risk management strategy in the upcoming period.