03.07.2026 17:52
SETA Defense Researcher Rıfat Öncel stated that the Ankara NATO Summit is a historic threshold that will move the alliance to the "NATO 3.0" concept based on a rigid military force; while emphasizing that Turkey, which has successfully achieved military spending targets despite Greek-Greek Cypriot vetoes within the EU, received U.S. approval for the F110 engine, and will host the 2026 Defense Industry Forum where billions of dollars in signatures will be made, will position itself as an active and shaping global player in this new era.
SETA Foundation Defense Researcher Rıfat Öncel evaluated the significance of the NATO Leaders Summit to be held in Ankara on July 7-8 and the future of the alliance in his analysis.
CHANGE IN NATO AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ANKARA SUMMIT
Öncel emphasized that the Ankara Summit will play a critical role in overcoming the problems facing NATO, which faces both military and political challenges in today's security environment.
Stating that military capabilities are still not seen at a sufficient level despite the Russia-Ukraine War that began in February 2022, Rıfat Öncel pointed out that with Donald Trump assuming the US Presidency in January 2025, there has been an increasing divergence in transatlantic relations.
In this context, referring to statements by Secretary General Mark Rutte that it is "more important than The Hague" and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that it "could be the most important summit in history," Öncel stated that at the Ankara Summit, not only increasing defense budgets but also "NATO 3.0" emphases, which include directly strengthening combat capabilities, will come to the fore.
Öncel conveyed that NATO 3.0 signifies the alliance's consolidation of defense and deterrence with a rigid military force rather than "unnecessary" tasks and operations, and represents European allies achieving conventional defense capacity without needing the US.
"TÜRKİYE WILL BE POSITIONED AS AN ACTIVE AND SHAPING PLAYER"
Analyzing Turkey's position within the changing NATO structure, Rıfat Öncel stated that both the Russia-Ukraine War and instability in the Middle East have increased the role Turkey is expected to play in European security.
Noting that Turkey, with its defense spending around 2.33 percent and equipment expenditure share never falling below 25 percent, is in full alignment with NATO targets, Öncel emphasized that the development of the Turkish defense industry is a positive factor for the security of all allies.
In this regard, Öncel highlighted the NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum 2026, to be held as part of the Ankara Summit and which will be the largest industry meeting in alliance history, noting that defense contracts worth tens of billions of dollars are expected to be signed within the forum, making the defense industry a strategic factor for NATO.
LIMITATIONS AND NECESSITIES
Öncel, who did not overlook the risk that the transforming NATO could pose new challenges for Turkey, stated that due to vetoes by Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA) in EU mechanisms, defense cooperation between Turkey and the EU has not reached its true potential. Noting that although increased political solidarity among allies is expected at the Ankara Summit, it is unrealistic for this to change in the short term, Öncel underlined that Turkey needs to further deepen bilateral relations and resolve defense procurement issues with the US.
Researcher Rıfat Öncel characterized the recent notification by the US administration to Congress regarding the sale of F110 engines as a highly positive step in this direction.