Bleak Prognosis For Erdoğan's Designs

Turkey's new president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has effectively become an international pariah after alienating many players in the international community, will soon find himself increasingly isolated in the domestic political landscape, even though he was able to parachute someone the opposition called a “small-timer,” former academic Ahmet Davutoğlu, into the role of caretaker of the ruling party and government.
Most in the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) may be categorized under four major factions, but in fact everybody has been quietly hedging political allegiances with a view towards maintaining power and access to the perks of patronage in terms of influence, position and money. Since it is the prime minister and not the president who in fact disburses these perks using budgetary and legislative powers as well as lucrative government contracts and tenders, the new guy on the block -- despite the fact that he may be considered by some as tainted and damaged goods because of his colossal failures in foreign policy -- would be Davutoğlu, to whom the faithful will start paying their dues from now on.
Below the surface of a purported brothership that is heavily laced with political Islamist rhetoric, I think Erdoğan remains a man who is on the edge all the time. His posture and facial gestures when Davutoğlu took the podium and delivered his speech tell the tale of an uncomfortable man. Probably Erdoğan is not sure whether Davutoğlu will eventually betray him and leave him exposed to massive legal troubles that have been haunting Erdoğan and his family since Dec. 17, 2013. He is also afraid of three major factions led by Bülent Arınç, Binali Yıldırım and Numan Kurtulmuş in the ruling party, which may very well spoil the post-Erdoğan design. Perhaps the constant reminders and unusual warnings of a doomsday scenario for defectors in his recent public speeches are another indication that Erdoğan is very much uneasy about the coming avalanche nurtured by the deep resentment towards his leadership.
In the coming weeks and months, Turkey will see the explosion of tension that has been below the surface of the ruling party. Personal, ideological, regional and ethnic differences among party members will be amplified, making it increasingly challenging to hold the party together. Davutoğlu, who has no strong constituency and has never been a savvy politician, will surely be tested for his political skills. But judging by how hard-nosed a diplomat he has been, striking an arrogant posture while lecturing his counterparts in history during his time as foreign minister, it's unlikely his skillset will be enough to bridge the rifts within the ruling party.
Erdoğan's authoritarian style and his refusal to engage in any meaningful debate over challenges will compound matters more for the ruling party. His departure upset the delicate balance he helped build in the party based on favors, blackmail and intimidation. Perhaps now it's Erdoğan's turn to have a taste of his own medicine in his struggle to survive the damaging corruption scandals. Let's not forget that former President Abdullah Gül's reversal of his earlier decision to retire from politics by announcing his return to the ruling party must have unnerved Erdoğan. The growing rift between Erdoğan and Gül, developing for years largely outside public view, is now out in the open. Gül will likely take his time and wait for Davutoğlu to err politically, as he did with his foreign policy, and move swiftly when he sees the window of opportunity.
Davutoğlu's strong anti-Western remarks in an AKP congress victory speech heavily peppered with religious and conservative references represented a clear effort to suppress rivalries among factions that are maneuvering for position in the post-Erdoğan era. Davutoğlu's poor imitation of Erdoğan's confrontational style and his beating of the war drum against an independent judiciary, media, and civic groups was not just an endeavor to please his master Erdoğan or to play to the gallery, but rather it was a reflection of genuine concern in his mind that nationalistic discourse and confrontational rhetoric are required to survive in a cutthroat political world. As he often turned to the anti-Western narrative when he was unable to explain his gross failures in foreign policy, Davutoğlu escalated his war of words to the economy by bashing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in his victory speech. Perhaps he was setting the stage for finding scapegoats for upcoming failures in the economic field as well.
Unlike the old guard of the ruling party, who may have ideological motivations, the new generation of politicians in the ruling party does not have strong inclinations to any ideology. When talking privately, many young deputies of the AKP talk about the advancement of democracy, fundamental rights and the rule of law; yet, when action is required, they mostly toe the line drawn by the leadership. That indicates the young generation lacks strong commitment to the values they preach privately. Rather, they are motivated by their self-interest and the prospect of keeping their name in the game with a view towards enriching themselves or acquiring influential positions. That is how Erdoğan was able to build the cult of personality around his name. But that will change quickly. Since loyalty follows favors, whoever provides them will be able to sway the allegiance of a young generation of politicians in the ruling party.
More importantly, what Erdoğan really wants no longer matches with the interests of the ruling party, the government or the nation, for that matter. As he is facing huge legal troubles, Erdoğan is in desperate need of constant crises to make people forget about his personal troubles. That makes the governance of this nation of 77 million very difficult. Hence, the track he has chosen is no longer a winning ticket for the ruling party, which claims its successes are based on a progressive and reformist stand. In the last two elections, the AKP simply drew on what it had accumulated and squandered the inheritance, as it was not able to increase its votes. In fact, the numbers are coming down, albeit gradually, spelling huge risks in the upcoming national elections next year. That means we'll see more and more politicians deciding to not keep their wagons hitched to Erdoğan's, as they search for a safe harbor and better refuge in politics.
As a result, cracks among rival factions will be more visible in the future, and the empty words of a rhetoric that emphasizes unity, nationalistic discourse and religious motives will not be able to keep the lid on the simmering divide between the various groups. The pressure of economic woes, security challenges in the region and troubled ties with partners and allies and the growing polarization in Turkish society will truly test the Davutoğlu government. The judiciary in Turkey will push back against government interference, and the military will never sign off on the witch-hunt Erdoğan and his successor Davutoğlu would like to see continued. The business community, already feeling the heat from economic difficulties, will exert more pressure on the government. The vibrant civil society and independent media will not be cowed into silence. As Davutoğlu struggles to find the right balance among all these countervailing forces, Erdoğan's constant meddling in the executive will make matters worse.
In the end, I think Davutoğlu will be a perfect fall guy for others to blame and dump all the dirt while Erdoğan's dominance will be chipped away gradually but surely. In any case, Turkish politics will be stabilized only when a new platform (be it a new group or a splinter from the ruling party) comes forward to claim a truly progressive stance by reaching out to everybody and adopting a genuine reformist stand. Until then, things in Turkey will get worse before they get better.

ABDULLAH BOZKURT (Cihan/Today's Zaman)