06.11.2025 21:58
Prof. Dr. Nurcan Meral Özel made striking statements regarding the early warning system developed by the Kandilli Observatory for the Marmara and Western Anatolia regions. Özel stated, "The early warning system successfully operated during the Sındırgı earthquake on October 27. Istanbul is located approximately 210 kilometers away from the epicenter. The warning signal was sent 37 seconds before the tremor was felt in Istanbul."
Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Director Prof. Dr. Nurcan Meral Özel stated that the newly tested early warning system successfully provided results during the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Sındırgı district of Balıkesir on October 27, sending a signal 37 seconds before the tremors were felt in Istanbul.
Prof. Dr. Özel, in a statement made in Tekirdağ where she came for a conference, expressed that the earthquakes in the Aegean Region occur within a tectonic system referred to as the "opening zone," and that the faults in this region have completely different characteristics from those of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. She noted that the fault zones in Sındırgı, Simav, Kütahya, and Balıkesir are not part of the same system as those in Marmara, stating, "Although the distance in kilometers between them is small, their mechanisms are different. There is also a mechanism for stress transfer within itself. The Sındırgı segment is a segment that forms the northwesternmost part of the Simav Fault Zone and is approximately 36 kilometers long according to the Turkey Fault Map." she said.
Referring to the earthquakes that occurred in Simav, Özel mentioned that the Simav and Sındırgı fault zones are two independent seismic sources, but they are under the influence of the same opening tectonic regime. Özel stated that for this reason, the existing stress in Simav may have slightly advanced the timing of the earthquake in the Sındırgı segment, but there is no direct triggering relationship between the two faults.
"THE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM WORKED SUCCESSFULLY IN THE SINDIRGI EARTHQUAKE" Özel noted that the new early warning system developed by the Kandilli Observatory for Marmara and Western Anatolia has been tested for 3.5 months. Stating that the system is still being tested, Özel recorded: "We developed an early warning system primarily for the Marmara Region using data obtained from the stations operated by the Kandilli Observatory. Considering the existing station infrastructure, Istanbul and the cities around the Sea of Marmara were selected as the test area. The system is currently being tested with a limited group of approximately 2,000 subscribers. The early warning system worked successfully during the Sındırgı earthquake (the earthquake on October 27). Istanbul, located about 210 kilometers from the epicenter, sent a warning signal 37 seconds before the tremors were felt in Istanbul. We are currently continuing to test the system with specific user groups. We are trying to renew our station infrastructure in this context to make it more suitable for early warning. As the number of existing stations increases and the modernizations that will reduce delays at the stations are completed, the system will be able to respond much faster, thus providing citizens and institutions with more time to take precautions. Our goal is to make the system operate effectively throughout Turkey by expanding the station network and renewing the infrastructure."
Prof. Dr. Nurcan Meral Özel. Özel explained that they closely monitor small earthquakes and the stress distribution in the region through 9 ocean bottom seismometers (OBS system) established in collaboration with Japanese researchers in the Sea of Marmara. Stating that even the smallest seismic movements are monitored, Özel said, "These systems are not yet operating in real-time. We collect data at intervals of 7-9 months, but the data recorded during this process allows us to retrospectively examine micro earthquakes that occurred over a period of up to 9 months." she said.
TO WHAT EXTENT WILL MARMARA GENERATE A TSUNAMI IN THE EVENT OF AN EARTHQUAKE? Özel stated that tsunami early warning efforts are ongoing along Turkey's 8,300-kilometer coastline. Expressing that they have been publishing information messages after earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher near the coast since 2012 as Kandilli Observatory, Özel said, "Since the Sea of Marmara is a closed basin, large waves are not expected, but even a 30-centimeter rise in water can cause damage." She also mentioned that they are working to identify tsunami risks along the coasts of Tekirdağ and to prepare flood maps, noting that underwater landslides also pose a second disaster risk after an earthquake.
WHEN THE GANOS FAULT BREAKS, IT MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND ŞARKÖY Özel also evaluated the Ganos Fault near Tekirdağ, stating, "The Ganos Fault, located at the western end of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, is one of the most critical segments. Although this fault, which produced a major earthquake in 1912, appears to have a low potential for reactivation in the short term, we are closely monitoring the movements in the region with the deep well and surface stations we established in Gaziköy in 2013. When the fault breaks again, Şarköy, Mürefte, Ganos, and Gaziköy may be directly affected." she said.