11.04.2026 08:50
Fitch Ratings has maintained Turkey's credit rating at "BB-" while downgrading the credit rating outlook from "positive" to "stable." The agency stated that the decision was based on the decline in reserves and increasing external risks.
The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has published its latest assessment of the Turkish economy. The agency confirmed Turkey's long-term foreign currency credit rating as "BB-", but announced that the outlook has been revised from "positive" to "stable".
THE DECLINE IN RESERVES WAS INFLUENTIAL IN THE DECISION
Fitch stated that this change was primarily due to the significant decline in Turkey's foreign currency reserves following the war that began with Iran. The agency emphasized that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has sold over 50 billion dollars in foreign currency to support the Turkish lira, warning that if the war prolongs, there could be further deterioration in the external debt and inflation outlook.
ENERGY DEPENDENCY AND INFLATION RISK EMERGED
The statement indicated that Turkey's high dependence on energy imports has increased economic vulnerabilities. Fitch reported that the risk of high inflation becoming permanent, political pressures on monetary policy, the risk of recurring currency crises, and the low level of reserves compared to external debt are putting pressure on the credit rating.
In contrast, a strong and diversified economy, relatively low public debt, access to external financing, and the resilience of the banking sector were highlighted as factors supporting Turkey's credit profile.
INFLATION AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ESTIMATES REVISED UPWARD
According to a report on Bloomberg HT; Fitch raised its inflation forecast for 2026 by 2 points to 27%. The agency expects inflation to decline to 21% by the end of 2027.
Fitch, predicting that the current account deficit will grow in 2026 and widen further in 2027 due to high energy prices, stated that a $20 increase in oil prices per barrel could raise the current account deficit by more than 1% of national income and push inflation upward.
The Central Bank's decision to raise the policy interest rate to 40% in March was evaluated as a sign that a tight stance in the fight against inflation is being maintained.
EXTERNAL DEBT AND FINANCING NEED REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS
Fitch emphasized that Turkey's external financing needs continue to remain high. The agency noted that the external debt maturing in the next 12 months is at a level of 239 billion dollars, which is high compared to foreign currency reserves.
While the external liquidity ratio is expected to rise from 82% at the end of 2025 to 98% in 2027, it was stated that this level would still be below the average of countries with similar credit ratings.
GROWTH EXPECTATION MAINTAINED
Fitch expects the Turkish economy to grow by 3.6% in 2026 and to gain momentum with 4.2% in 2027. The agency also noted that the escalated mobile application has limited a significant portion of the impact of energy prices on inflation.
Fitch announced the next planned assessment date as July 17, 2026.