04.12.2025 09:02
Fitch Ratings has raised its growth forecast for the global economy from 2.4% to 2.5% for this year and from 2.3% to 2.4% for next year. Fitch has also increased its growth expectation for the Turkish economy in 2025 from 3.5% to 3.8%, while maintaining its forecast for next year at 3.5%.
The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings published the December issue of the Global Economic Outlook Report under the title "Increasing information technology investments and rising stock markets are easing the slowdown in the U.S."
GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS HAVE BEEN RAISED
In the report, it was stated that the wealth effects from increasing information technology investments and vibrant stock markets have mitigated the impact of tariff increases on the U.S. economy, and with the Eurozone's growth performing better than expected, global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised.
"THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL GROW BY 2.6% IN 2027"
Fitch's report noted that despite the upward revisions in growth forecasts, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2.9% in 2024 to 2.5% this year and 2.4% next year. The report indicated that the world economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2027. In its report published in September, Fitch had projected that the world economy would grow by 2.4% this year and 2.3% next year.
UPWARD REVISIONS FOR GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE U.S. AND CHINA
The report stated that growth forecasts for the U.S. economy have been raised from 1.6% to 1.8% for this year and from 1.6% to 1.9% for next year, with the country's economy expected to grow by 2.1% in 2027. It was reported that the Eurozone's economic growth forecast has been raised from 1.1% to 1.4% for this year and from 1.1% to 1.3% for next year, with the region's economy expected to grow by 1.2% in 2027. The report also noted that the growth forecast for the Chinese economy has been raised from 4.7% to 4.8% for this year, while it has been maintained at 4.1% for 2026 and 2027.
TURKEY'S GROWTH FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED
The report, which also included assessments regarding the Turkish economy, stated that the country's growth expectation has been raised from 3.5% to 3.8% for this year. It was noted that there were no changes in the growth expectations for Turkey's economy for 2026 and 2027, with the country's economy expected to grow by 3.5% next year and 4.2% in 2027.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE HAS A SIGNIFICANT MACROECONOMIC IMPACT
Fitch's report emphasized that artificial intelligence has a significant macroeconomic impact, pointing to the increase in information technology capital expenditures, which accounted for nearly 90% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the first half of this year. The report noted that the rise in stock markets and the increase in capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence have raised concerns about "bubble" risks in the financial system, stating that U.S. stock markets appear to be very rich in terms of many valuation metrics, but the surge in capital expenditures has momentum and is not currently associated with a significant increase in corporate debt.
Additionally, the report predicted that policy interest rates in the U.S., Eurozone, and the UK would approach "neutral" levels by mid-2026. It was noted that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady in December but is anticipated to implement three rate cuts by June as the tariff shock stabilizes and the unemployment rate rises. The report also indicated that the Bank of England is expected to cut rates three times in 2026 as unemployment rises significantly, while no additional rate cuts are expected from the European Central Bank.