20.01.2025 18:21
The 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, will officially take office today with the inauguration ceremony. The markets are closely watching the beginning of the second Trump term. Trump's initial impressions and decisions regarding the global economy are being closely monitored. His first decisions are expected to determine the direction of the markets.
While uncertainties remain regarding the possible effects of the policies that the new administration in the U.S. will implement on the economy, a positive trend is observed ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th President of the United States today. As the inflation-recession dilemma continues globally, uncertainties about how the policies of the Trump administration will affect the international economy and trade are influencing the direction of the markets.
POSITIVE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE FIRST DECISION Analysts state that Trump's announcements are being closely monitored, noting that hints regarding the new administration's trade and economic policies will be sought in these statements. Additionally, the first decisions Trump makes are expected to have an impact on the direction of the markets. According to data released on Friday, industrial production in the U.S. increased by 0.9% in December 2024, exceeding market expectations. The capacity utilization rate in the country also rose by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6% during the same period. The number of new housing starts in the country increased by 15.8% in December 2024, also surpassing market expectations. On the corporate side, the better-than-expected financial results of major banks in the U.S. and signs that core inflation is slowing supported investors' risk appetite on Friday.
NVIDIA AND TESLA ROSE BY OVER 3% The rise in shares of major technology companies led to an increase in the indices, with Nvidia and Tesla shares rising by over 3%, Amazon shares by 2.4%, Alphabet shares by 1.6%, and Microsoft shares by 1%. With these developments, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.63%, while the dollar index started the week at 109.1, down 0.3%.
GOLD ROSE, OIL FELL The price of gold per ounce closed at $2,701 on Friday, down 0.6%, while it is currently trading at $2,703, slightly above the previous close. The price of Brent crude oil is finding buyers at $79.8, down 0.1% in the new week. On the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P 500 index rose by 1%, the Dow Jones index by 0.78%, and the Nasdaq index by 1.51%. Today, there will be no trading in the U.S. markets due to Martin Luther King Day.
EYES ON THE NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION'S STEPS IN EUROPEAN MARKETS While a positive trend was prominent in European markets on Friday, all eyes are on the steps the new U.S. administration will take today. The effects of the tariff steps that Trump will announce today, as he takes the oath of office, on the European economy continue to be a matter of curiosity, while recession concerns remain a key economic agenda item across the region.
According to data released on Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in December, in line with expectations. In the UK, retail sales fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December 2024, significantly below expectations. With these developments, on Friday, the CAC 40 index in France rose by 0.98%, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy by 1.25%, the DAX 40 index in Germany by 1.20%, and the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 1.35%. In Europe, index futures contracts started the new day with a positive trend.
ASIAN MARKETS AWAIT TRUMP'S FIRST DAY IMPRESSIONS In Asia, a mixed trend is observed, while there were no changes in the 1-year and 5-year loan interest rates (LPR) that serve as benchmark rates in China. According to the National Interbank Funding Center, the 1-year loan interest rate remains at 3.1%, and the 5-year loan interest rate is held steady at 3.6%. The LPR, determined based on the profit margin notifications set by 18 banks in China over the borrowing rate set by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), has served as the country's benchmark interest rate since 2019. While macroeconomic data flow in the region is being monitored, data released today in Japan showed that core machinery orders for November 2024 increased by 3.4% month-on-month and 10.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, industrial production in the country decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, while the capacity utilization rate fell by 1.9%.
On the other hand, the impressions and statements that Trump will give on his first day in office, as he takes the oath today, are being closely monitored by the countries in the region. With these developments, as the market nears closing, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.3%, China's Shanghai Composite index by 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index by 2.4%, while South Korea's Kospi index remained flat.