The concern over natural gas has begun in Europe before winter arrives.

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If this winter is mild, Europe's natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 8-10 billion cubic meters compared to last year, while in the case of a cold winter, it is expected to rise by at least 20-25 billion cubic meters. According to a report published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the few days of cold weather experienced in September highlighted the importance of weather conditions on gas demand across all sectors, particularly in residential and commercial sectors.

NATURAL GAS PRICES IN EUROPE ARE HIGH

The report stated that it is "too early" to make a definitive weather forecast for this winter, noting that "Initial indicators suggest a high likelihood that Western and Central Europe will be affected by colder weather compared to last year due to La Nina." The report also noted that the global gas market has tightened once again, with Asian demand leading to a significant recovery in the markets. It was mentioned that natural gas prices rose in the third quarter of the year due to supply constraints and increased competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG), and it was shared that "European production has decreased somewhat due to gas supply cuts from Norway via pipeline, which has kept gas prices high."

EUROPE'S GAS SITUATION MAY WORSEN

The report emphasized that one of the main factors behind the current price increase is the tightening of the global LNG market, particularly noting that strong demand from China, India, and Japan has led to an increase in Asia's LNG imports over the summer. The report highlighted the possibility that colder weather as winter approaches could worsen Europe's tight gas situation and its fragility.

HURRICANE ANXIETY AT ITS PEAK

The report warned that La Nina could bring colder conditions, which would increase heating demand after two mild winters that alleviated pressure on storage levels, stating, "Europe's natural gas demand is expected to increase by 8 to 10 billion cubic meters compared to last year if this winter is mild, and by at least 20-25 billion cubic meters in the case of a cold winter." In 2019, Europe consumed 550 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 534 in 2020, 553 in 2021, 496 in 2022, and 465 billion cubic meters in 2023.