"US giant bank's Dollar/TL forecast"

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The US investment bank Morgan Stanley has published a new analysis for Turkish banks. The analysis indicates that the dollar exchange rate is expected to reach 45 lira by the end of 2025, while a tightening in the third quarter is anticipated. Morgan Stanley economists stated that the turning point story for Turkish banks in margins continues, but they are waiting for a more attractive entry point. The analysis highlighted that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which is focused on reducing inflation, is expected to increase tightening in the third quarter, while higher reserve requirements have affected the margin outlook.

"CBRT WILL GO FOR SUCCESSIVE 250 BASIS POINT INTEREST RATE CUTS"

Morgan Stanley economists forecast successive interest rate cuts of 250 basis points starting from January, predicting that the CBRT will lower its policy rate to 42.5% by March and to 35% by June. Analysts, who expect the easing cycle to continue with smaller steps thereafter, stated that they anticipate real interest rates to be around 3% based on actual inflation. Morgan Stanley economists also reduced their net income forecasts for Turkish banks for 2025-2026 by an average of 19%.

DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE FORECAST

It was emphasized that there is a risk of the Turkish lira strengthening above the previous forecast of 36 against the dollar by the end of the year. The bank's expectation for the Dollar/TRY at the end of 2025 is also recorded as 45.