20.02.2026 14:35
According to BBC's analysis, a possible military intervention by the US in Iran raises seven different scenarios ranging from limited and targeted strikes to regime change, Iran's retaliation, an energy crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and even the country's descent into civil war. The analysis emphasizes that while the targets are predictable, the outcomes are highly uncertain.
The increase of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding negotiations with Iran have brought the possibility of a conflict back to the forefront. The BBC evaluated the potential consequences of a possible U.S. attack on Iran under 7 headings.
1. TARGETED AND LIMITED ATTACK, POSSIBILITY OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION
If the U.S. conducts precise operations against the Revolutionary Guards, ballistic missile facilities, and nuclear infrastructure, it is anticipated that the regime could weaken and a democratic transition process could begin. However, this possibility is considered an optimistic scenario.
2. REGIME STAYS IN POWER, POLICIES SOFTEN
Even if the U.S. intervention does not overthrow the regime, it could force the Tehran administration to reduce its regional militia support and limit its nuclear program. However, the likelihood of a fundamental change is seen as low.
3. REGIME COLLAPSES, MILITARY GOVERNMENT EMERGES
In the event of the regime's collapse, it is stated that the country could be dragged into a military government dominated by the Revolutionary Guards instead of civil democracy.
4. IRAN'S RETALIATION AGAINST THE U.S. AND ITS ALLIES
It is noted that Tehran could respond to regional targets, primarily U.S. bases in Bahrain and Qatar, with ballistic missiles and drones.
5. CRISIS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
If Iran mines the sea routes, a serious global energy crisis could occur in the Strait of Hormuz, which affects a significant portion of the world's oil and LNG trade.
6. ATTACK ON U.S. WARSHIP
It is considered possible that Iran could target a U.S. warship by conducting a mass attack using drones and fast boats with asymmetric warfare tactics.
7. COLLAPSE OF THE REGIME AND CHAOS
In the riskiest scenario, it is emphasized that Iran could be dragged into civil war, ethnic tensions could rise, and regional instability could deepen.
According to the BBC, the consequences of a possible military intervention could directly affect not only Iran but the entire region and global energy markets.