Election survey in 10 provinces including Istanbul and Ankara: Only one of our cities changed hands.

Election survey in 10 provinces including Istanbul and Ankara: Only one of our cities changed hands.

22.08.2025 19:54

According to the survey results conducted by ORC Research between August 16-20, 2025, the AK Party appears to be leading in the Black Sea provinces, while a neck-and-neck situation has emerged between the CHP and the AK Party in the metropolitan cities. In Rize, the AK Party is the leading party with 43.9%, while in Zonguldak, the CHP has taken the lead with 36.1%. In Istanbul, the CHP received 31.7% and the AK Party 31.2%; in Ankara, the CHP garnered 32.5% and the AK Party 30.9%.

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ORC Research announced the results of its political trends survey conducted between August 16-20, 2025. The responses to the question "If there were elections this Sunday, which party would you vote for?" varied by province, with some provinces showing a very close competition between the ruling party and the opposition.

AK PARTY LEADS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Measurements in the Black Sea provinces showed that the AK Party maintained its position as the leading party. It was observed that the AK Party received over 40% of the votes, especially in Rize and Trabzon, while the CHP remained around 25%.

  • Ordu: AK Party 36.4%, CHP 28.9%, MHP 9.2%, İYİ Party 8.5%.
  • Samsun: AK Party 34.1%, CHP 25.9%, MHP 11.2%, İYİ Party 9.6%.
  • Trabzon: AK Party 40.2%, CHP 24.2%, MHP 8.4%, İYİ Party 6.3%.
  • Rize: AK Party 43.9%, CHP 23.2%, MHP 9.2%, New Welfare 7.5%.

BALANCES ARE CHANGING IN WESTERN BLACK SEA

The situation in the Western Black Sea provinces is more balanced. In Zonguldak, the CHP emerged as the leading party with 36.1%, while the AK Party remained at 34.3%. Although the AK Party appears to be ahead in Karabük and Kastamonu, the CHP's vote rates ranging from 25-31% indicate a high level of competition. According to the survey, Zonguldak stands out as the province where votes shifted from the AK Party to the CHP.

  • Karabük: AK Party 30.8%, CHP 25.2%, MHP 11.4%, New Welfare 10.2%.
  • Kastamonu: AK Party 34.5%, CHP 30.9%, MHP 10.4%, New Welfare 6.5%.
  • Bolu: AK Party 30.8%, CHP 28.7%, MHP 16.1%, New Welfare 5.0%.

INTENSE COMPETITION IN ISTANBUL AND ANKARA

The results from Ankara and Istanbul also drew attention in the research. In both cities, the CHP appears to be slightly ahead. The difference between the CHP and the AK Party in Istanbul is only 0.5 points, while in Ankara, the difference is at 1.6 points.

  • Ankara: CHP 32.5%, AK Party 30.9%, MHP 8.4%, İYİ Party 6.2%.
  • İstanbul: CHP 31.7%, AK Party 31.2%, DEM Party 7.3%, MHP 5.2%, İYİ Party 4.5%.

GENERAL EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS

  • According to the research, the AK Party continues to maintain its strong position, especially in the Black Sea provinces, while the gap with the CHP in metropolitan areas has narrowed.
  • The New Welfare Party drew attention with a vote rate between 6% and 10% in Karabük, Kastamonu, and Rize.
  • It was observed that the İYİ Party has declined to a range of 4-10% in the Black Sea and Central Anatolia.
  • The province where the DEM Party reached its highest vote rate was Istanbul, with 7.3%.


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