17.03.2026 12:31
World-renowned investor Ray Dalio warned that the war in the Middle East and a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could be a turning point that might shake the United States' global dominance, indicating that the dollar's status as a reserve currency could be at risk.
One of the world's most respected macro investors, Ray Dalio, stated that the escalating war in the Middle East and the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could shake global balances, expressing that the leadership of the United States in the world order is at risk.
In an analysis published on Substack, Dalio pointed out that the current developments bear similarities to the collapse processes of great empires in history. The famous investor emphasized that a potential blockage in the Strait of Hormuz could have critical consequences for the global economy.
COMPARED TO THE SUEZ CRISIS
Ray Dalio recalled the Suez Crisis of 1956, stating that the strategic loss experienced by England during this process led to the end of the British Empire. Noting that the United States could also face a similar breaking point, Dalio expressed that developments in the Strait of Hormuz are critical in this regard. According to Dalio, blocking transitions in the strait or the use of alternative currencies instead of the dollar in trade could seriously undermine the global economic power of the United States.
THREE MAJOR RISKS FOR THE U.S.
Dalio stated that the United States is at a risky stage within the framework of the "Big Cycle" theory and listed three fundamental elements that could trigger a collapse. At the forefront is the increasing debt burden and monetary policies of the United States. Dalio expressed that the erosion of the dollar's purchasing power could have serious long-term consequences. Secondly, drawing attention to the political polarization and social tension in the country, Dalio noted that internal conflicts make the U.S. more vulnerable to external threats. As the third element, he emphasized that costly wars with regional powers like Iran could deplete the military and economic resources of the United States.
THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR IS BEING DISCUSSED
One of the most striking topics in Dalio's analysis was the position of the dollar as a global reserve currency. Highlighting the possibility of the dollar being sidelined in energy trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Dalio stated that the use of alternative currencies, especially the Chinese yuan, could weaken the "petrodollar" system. According to Dalio, this situation could make it difficult for the U.S. to finance its debts and lead to a rapid decline in its global power.
WARNING TO INVESTORS
Dalio indicated that the ongoing developments are not just a geopolitical crisis but also signal a significant economic transformation process. Emphasizing that investors need to be prepared during this process, Dalio highlighted the importance of diversified portfolios and real assets.