"Expert warns of a 6.6 magnitude earthquake for the Black Sea coast."

The Eastern Black Sea Region has recently been in the news due to natural disasters such as landslides, rockfalls, floods, and inundations. Experts indicate in their scientific research that small earthquakes occurring on the North Anatolian Fault particularly trigger landslides. Geology Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş evaluated the 3.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Akçaabat district of Trabzon the other day and made important warnings.

"THE BLACK SEA FAULT THREATENS THE COAST"

Prof. Dr. Bektaş emphasized that the active Black Sea fault has the potential to produce earthquakes up to 6.6 in magnitude, stating, "The Trabzon-Rize coast is an area of settlement located between two earthquake zones. To the south, there are the North Anatolian Fault, which is the most active fault in Turkey, and the North East Anatolian faults, which encircle the coast from the south. From the north, the Black Sea fault threatens the coast. The 3.2 magnitude earthquake has grazed Trabzon because it was parallel to the coast." he said.

"IT CAN PRODUCE EARTHQUAKES LARGER THAN 6.6"

Noting that the Black Sea coast is surrounded by earthquake zones from both the north and the south, Bektaş stated, "According to AFAD data, the maximum earthquake magnitude that this fault can produce in the next 50 years is 6.6. There is a 90% probability of this. However, there is a 10% probability that it could produce an earthquake larger than 6.6. Therefore, since the Eastern Black Sea coast is located between two earthquake zones from both the north and south, the building stock should be constructed accordingly." he said.

"COASTAL AREAS ARE MORE DANGEROUS AND RISKY"

Bektaş expressed that the earthquakes occurring on the Black Sea coast affect the increase in stress on the faults, stating, "The location of the earthquake is quite interesting. In 2012, there was a 5.6 magnitude earthquake on the Trabzon fault, that is, in the sea. The aftershocks of this main earthquake extended as far as Trabzon. The extension of the aftershocks to Trabzon indicates that the stresses on the faults in this region have increased. Similarly, the 4.7 magnitude earthquake in Çamlıhemşin, Rize, in the last months of 2024 shows that the stresses on the faults in this region have increased. Is this earthquake a precursor? It is not possible to say anything for this. According to AFAD data, the Black Sea coast must be prepared for an earthquake of 6.6 magnitude or higher at any moment. Coastal areas are much more dangerous and risky. The sandy areas on the coast increase the magnitude of the earthquake." he said.

"EARTHQUAKES OF MAGNITUDE 3 HAVE INCREASED"

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş pointed out that the earthquakes have triggered landslides in the Eastern Black Sea, stating, "Since 2012, the number of earthquakes of magnitude 3 on the Black Sea coast and in the sea has significantly increased. After the Çamlıhemşin earthquake, the slopes in Artvin have become extremely active, and many landslides have occurred there. The factors triggering these landslides on the slopes are not solely rainfall. The mountains are constantly rising, increasing gravity. These small and medium-sized earthquakes act as a hammer on the slopes. They can mobilize fractured, landslide-prone structures and unstable structures. Landslides are influenced by the seismicity of the region, the rising of the mountains, and rainfall. Rainfall, gravity, and seismicity are the main causes of landslides in the region." he said.