25.08.2026 11:40
With the Central Bank and market giants updating their year-end 2026 inflation expectations, the January 2027 raise rates for millions of SSK, Bağ-Kur, and retired civil servants have become clear. According to four different scenarios prepared, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive raises between 8.70% and 10.80%, while civil servants and retired civil servants will receive raises between 6.67% and 8.73%. With salary raises becoming clear, the lowest civil servant salary is expected to exceed 76,000 TL, and the lowest retired civil servant pension is expected to exceed 34,000 TL.
As the January 2027 raise period approaches, with the Central Bank and major market players updating their year-end inflation expectations, calculations regarding pension and civil servant salary increases have become clear. According to 4 different raise scenarios that will directly affect SSK, Bağ-Kur, and civil servant retirees, the salary increases have been revealed to the last penny.
With the announcement of the 2026 year-end inflation forecasts, millions of employees and retirees have turned their attention to the January 2027 raise. According to the law, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive a raise equal to the inflation rate of the second 6-month period of 2026. Civil servants and retired civil servants will have an inflation difference exceeding 7% reflected in their salaries, in addition to the collective bargaining raise. According to market expectations, SSK and Bağ-Kur raises are shaping up between 8.70% and 10.80%, while civil servant raises are between 6.67% and 8.73%.
4 DIFFERENT INFLATION SCENARIOS AND NEW SALARIES
1st Scenario (Central Bank 28% Year-End Forecast):
- 6-month inflation is realized at 8.70%.
- SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees receive an 8.70% raise, while the salary increase for civil servants and retired civil servants reaches 6.67% with a 1.59% inflation difference.
- The lowest civil servant salary rises from 70,224 TL to 74,908 TL, the lowest retired civil servant pension rises from 31,527 TL to 33,630 TL, and the SSK and Bağ-Kur base pension rises to 25,601 TL.
2nd Scenario (Market Participants Survey 29.43% Forecast):
- If the year-end inflation expectation is realized, the 6-month inflation becomes 9.91%.
- Thus, the raise rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees is calculated as 9.91%.
3rd Scenario (AA Finance Survey 29.55% Forecast):
- 6-month inflation rises to the level of 10.01%.
- SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees receive a 10.01% raise, while the raise rate for civil servants and retired civil servants reaches 7.95% with a 2.81% inflation difference.
- The lowest civil servant salary reaches 75,807 TL, the lowest retired civil servant pension reaches 34,033 TL, and the SSK and Bağ-Kur base pension reaches the level of 25,910 TL.
4th Scenario (Financial Institutions Association 30.47% Forecast):
- In the scenario indicating the highest raise rate on the table, 6-month inflation climbs to 10.80%.
- SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees earn the right to a 10.80% raise, while civil servants receive a total raise of 8.73% with a 3.55% inflation difference.
- The lowest civil servant salary rises to 76,355 TL, the lowest retired civil servant pension rises to 34,279 TL, and the SSK and Bağ-Kur base pension rises to 26,096 TL.