If inflation reaches 41.5%, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive a 13.46% increase.

Social Security Chief Expert İsa Karakaş stated, "If the inflation rate of 41.5% mentioned in the Medium-Term Plan materializes, it will be possible for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees to receive a raise of 13.46%." The new raise rates for millions of retirees directly concerned will be finalized after the inflation rate for December, which will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute in January, and the pensions will increase by the rate of the 6-month inflation difference.

ALL POSSIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CALCULATED

Looking at the 3-month inflation rates announced by TÜİK, the monthly inflation in July was recorded at 3.23%, in August at 2.47%, and in September at 2.97%. The total inflation for the 3 months was recorded as 8.93%. Speaking to İhlas News Agency regarding the pensions to be updated in the new year, Turkey Newspaper Writer and Social Security Chief Expert İsa Karakaş evaluated the possible pension amounts based on year-end inflation forecasts. Karakaş stated that pensions could be evaluated within the framework of the Medium-Term Plan and expectation surveys, saying, "We currently know the 3-month inflation rates for July, August, and September. As of today, it is certain that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive a raise of 8.93%. Considering the 8.93% inflation difference, a retiree with a base salary of 11,500 lira will receive a raised salary of 12,527 lira," he explained.

"IF THE INFLATION RATE OF 41.5% MATERIALIZES, RETIREES WILL RECEIVE A 13.46% RAISE"

Reminding that the OVP has been updated and the year-end inflation expectation is 41.5%, Karakaş said, "When we calculate the 6-month inflation difference based on the 41.5% inflation, a figure of 13.46% emerges. If the inflation rate of 41.5% projected by the government in the OVP materializes, it will be possible for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees to receive a raise of 13.46%. According to this calculation, if a retiree with a base salary of 11,000 lira receives a raise of 13.46%, their salary will remain below 12,500 lira. In summary, if the inflation difference projected in the OVP of 41.5% materializes, those with a base salary below 11,000 lira will receive no raise. In this case, these retirees will continue to receive the current 12,500 lira," he stated.

"IF INFLATION IS ABOVE 43%, SSK AND BAĞ-KUR RETIREES WILL RECEIVE A 15% RAISE"

Sharing evaluations of inflation expectation surveys, Karakaş expressed that the year-end inflation will be more than 41.5%, stating, "When we look at the expectation surveys and the predictions of international organizations, it is seen that the year-end inflation will not be 41.5%. It is predicted to be above 43%. If we calculate based on this scenario, a raise of at least 15% is possible. In this case, if inflation is above 43% at the end of the year, a raise of 15% will be possible for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. According to this percentage, if we calculate, as of today, retirees with a base salary below 10,870 lira will have their salaries remain at 12,500 lira. In other words, even if there is a 15% raise, retirees with a base salary of 10,870 lira will face the risk of receiving no raise," he said.

"RETIREES WITH SALARIES BELOW 11,000 LIRA WILL RECEIVE NO RAISE"

Karakaş also reminded that the lowest pension is 12,500 lira, stating, "In the calculation to be made by the Social Security Institution, it is foreseen that a raise will be made only to the extent of the 6-month difference that emerges. In this case, retirees with salaries below 11,000 lira will receive no raise. However, since no raise was given to those with low base salaries in July 2023, nearly 4 million retirees emerged who did not receive a raise. If the base salary remains fixed at 12,500 lira, nearly 4 million retirees with salaries below 10,870 lira will face the risk of receiving no raise. However, we expect President Erdoğan to intervene and raise this 12,500 lira base salary to at least 15,000 lira," he evaluated.

"THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO MAKE A LEGAL ARRANGEMENT"

Karakaş noted that if inflation is as expected at 43%, all retirees with salaries below 12,500 lira will receive a 15% raise, stating, "There will be no social assistance or treasury aid for them. If the lowest pension is raised from 12,500 lira to 15,000 lira, the government needs to make a legal arrangement by the end of December at the latest. It is not possible to increase this without a legal arrangement. Therefore, the entire difference will have to come from the treasury, not from the SGK," he concluded.