In the largest country in Europe, the minority government supported by the far right could fall at any moment.

After the far-right National Rally (RN) party withdrew its support from the minority government in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier will face a tough confidence vote in the parliament this evening.

The leftists, who won the early general election, argue that Prime Minister Barnier, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron on September 5, is collaborating with the far-right.

DID THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT SHIFT TO THE FAR-RIGHT?

The minority Barnier government, which has been in power for about three months, has been accused of adopting the far-right's ideas through its statements on border security and combating immigration. Unable to secure an absolute majority, the government needed the cooperation of RN deputies to continue its legislative activities in the parliament.

However, as a result of the disagreement that arose with the far-right during the discussions of the 2025 budget in Parliament, Prime Minister Barnier's government could fall with a vote scheduled for 4:00 PM local time in the parliament.

THE FAR-RIGHT HAD WON IN THE ELECTIONS

In the European Parliament elections held from June 6-9, the far-right RN secured the first place with a high vote rate of 31.50%, surpassing Macron's party. Macron's party, which received 15.2% in the EP elections, unexpectedly decided to dissolve the National Assembly on the evening of June 9. The last time the National Assembly was dissolved during the 5th Republic in France was on April 21, 1997.

In the early elections held on June 30 and July 7, the left and environmentalists participated in an alliance under the name New People's Front (NFP), while some well-known figures from the center-right, like Eric Ciotti, allied with the far-right RN party led by Marine Le Pen.

COALITION WAS THE ONLY OPTION

In the election, where the ruling side participated with its partners Horizons and the center-right MoDem party, although the far-right led in the first round, the left alliance NFP unexpectedly won in the second round, defying the election polls. In the elections, NFP secured 193 seats, the ruling side 166, and RN and its allies 142 seats.

In the 577-seat National Assembly, the inability of any party or alliance to secure an absolute majority has led to a challenging search for a prime minister for the ruling side.

NFP demanded that Macron appoint its candidates as prime minister as the winner of the election, in accordance with political traditions, but the French President rejected all three joint candidates proposed by the left.

"MACRON USURPED THE PEOPLE'S ELECTION"

About two months after the election, on September 5, Macron appointed Barnier, a member of the center-right Republicans (LR) party, as prime minister.

The selection of a prime minister from the LR party, which only secured 47 deputies in the general elections, was interpreted by the left as "Macron usurping the people's election" and as a "democratic coup."

Unlike the left, RN leaders did not oppose Barnier's appointment as prime minister. The far-right leaders provided tacit support to the new government, stating that the new prime minister had met the condition of "respecting RN deputies."

This was reflected in the local media as the government appointing a prime minister who had received the "approval of the far-right," while Pascal Canfin, a French member of the EP, resigned from the party leadership just 21 days after the new prime minister was appointed, citing that Macron's party Renaissance supported a government aligned with the far-right's demands.

BARNIER GOVERNMENT SHIFTED TO THE FAR-RIGHT IN IMMIGRATION POLICY

The new government stated that they wanted to better control their borders and would take steps to facilitate the deportation of illegal immigrants, making statements that approached the far-right's line on these issues.

In his first speech in the National Assembly on October 1, Barnier stated that they wanted to better control the country's borders.

French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau also expressed on October 10 that they aimed to "reduce not only illegal immigration but also legal immigration."

The Barnier government has faced criticism for shifting towards the far-right in immigration policies, as it sought to implement a new law in 2025 following the controversial immigration law passed in Parliament with the votes of the far-right in 2023.

Flore Judet, Coordinator of the L'Auberge Association, which conducts aid activities for immigrants, stated that the immigration regulations prepared by the Barnier government upon taking office created a new series of "inequalities" for immigrants.

Judet emphasized that the far-right has maintained its anti-immigration rhetoric for years, but this rhetoric has recently become a more "common" language adopted by political parties, noting that the shift towards the far-right in France is also reflected in immigration policies, as the government continues to tighten border controls with both the UK and European countries.

2025 BUDGET DISCUSSIONS "DISRUPTED" THE GOVERNMENT AND THE FAR-RIGHT

The tacit cooperation between the government and the far-right, which had similar stances on combating immigration and increasing border controls, was brought to an end by the discussions of the 2025 budget and the 2025 health insurance negotiations in Parliament.

The opposition threatened to overthrow the government, which plans to save 40 billion euros and increase taxes by 20 billion euros for next year's budget.

ELECTRICITY PRICES BECAME A SUBJECT OF DEBATE

On November 28, Barnier announced that he had withdrawn the tax increase on electricity prices in the 2025 budget proposal, which the far-right defined as their "red line."

However, despite the government's concessions to the far-right, the Prime Minister's announcement did not satisfy Le Pen. Last week, Le Pen stated in an interview with Le Monde that she had four red lines regarding the budget and threatened to support a motion of censure against Barnier if her demands were not met.

On December 2, Barnier activated Article 49, Paragraph 3 of the Constitution, allowing the 2025 health insurance budget to pass without a vote in the parliament.

In response, 185 deputies from the left side of the parliament submitted a motion of censure against the government, while a total of 140 deputies from RN and the party's parliamentary allies submitted another motion of censure.

BARNIER GOVERNMENT MAY BE THE SHORTEST IN THE 5TH REPUBLIC

This evening at 4:00 PM local time, the motions of censure submitted against the government will be discussed in the National Assembly and put to a vote by the deputies.

In France, for the government to fall, 289 deputies need to support the motion of censure. The far-right RN announced that they would support the motion of censure submitted by the left. With 124 deputies in the parliament, if RN supports the left's initiative, the necessary number of votes for the motion can be reached. Thus, the three-month Barnier government could fall. If such a scenario occurs, the Barnier government will go down in history as the shortest government during the 5th Republic in France.

EUROPEAN ECONOMIES ON A KNIFE EDGE

Even before the 2025 budget has passed through Parliament, the possibility of the government falling has raised concerns in European financial markets.

Barnier argued in his speech in parliament yesterday that the situation in the country would become even more difficult if the government falls.

The French Constitution allows for alternative measures to be taken by public institutions in cases where the budget is not passed on time. In this case, the risk of a "shutdown" similar to that in the U.S. seems unlikely in France.

On the other hand, the ruling party made various statements to dissuade the far-right and socialists within the NFP from supporting the motion. If the socialists do not support the censure motion or if the far-right withdraws its support for the left alliance's motion, the government may not fall.

THE LAST GOVERNMENT TO FALL IN FRANCE WAS IN 1962

The last government to fall in the country was that of Georges Pompidou in 1962, when then-President Charles de Gaulle dissolved the Assembly and opted for early elections.

Macron, who has used his constitutional right to dissolve the Assembly once this year, will not be able to call for early general elections again before July 2025.

During this process, the opposition demanded the resignation of Macron, whom they hold responsible for the political crisis in the country. Macron, speaking to the press during his official visit to Saudi Arabia, ruled out the possibility of stepping down.