23.01.2026 12:50
Galatasaray enters the last week of the Champions League with a 99% advantage, and according to hundreds of simulations, Newcastle United emerges as the most likely opponent in the playoff round.
Galatasaray is entering the final week of the UEFA Champions League with a significant advantage. The yellow-red team has almost guaranteed its place in the top 24, even if it loses against Manchester City away.
99% ADVANTAGE
Galatasaray, which drew 1-1 in a match where it fell behind against Atletico Madrid, is in 17th place among 36 teams with 10 points collected in 7 weeks. According to calculations, for Galatasaray to remain outside the top 24, at least 9 out of 10 possible scenarios in the matches to be played in the last week must occur. This probability is considered to be only 1%.
ALL EYES ON JANUARY 28
Before the match against Manchester City on January 28, Galatasaray has guaranteed finishing the league stage in the top 24 with a 99% probability. Therefore, for the yellow-reds, the match against City is seen more as a prestige battle. The main question of interest is the opponent in the playoff round.
RESULT OF HUNDREDS OF SIMULATIONS
According to hundreds of match simulations, the team with the highest probability of facing Galatasaray in the playoff round is Newcastle United. Following the English team, Inter, Borussia Dortmund, and Atalanta are also among the high-probability opponents. Chelsea, Juventus, Sporting, PSG, Tottenham, and Atletico Madrid are highlighted as other teams within the realm of possibility.
LAST MATCH RESULT CAN DETERMINE THE OPPONENT
If Galatasaray wins against Manchester City, the chances of facing Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, and Marseille increase. In the case of a draw, Inter, Newcastle United, and Dortmund come to the forefront, while in the event of a loss, scenarios involving Newcastle United, Inter, and Atalanta are more likely.
ELIMINATION PROBABILITY IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
For Galatasaray to exit the tournament with 10 points, many low-probability outcomes must occur simultaneously. The majority of the results in the matches played by Barcelona, Chelsea, Ajax, Sporting, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Villarreal, Club Brugge, and Liverpool must be unfavorable for Galatasaray. Therefore, the yellow-red team is in a very comfortable position regarding the playoff ticket.