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It is moving towards the west, and when it breaks, it will generate an earthquake of up to 7.8.

It is moving towards the west, and when it breaks, it will generate an earthquake of up to 7.8.

03.10.2024 19:30

The Director General of AFAD, Prof. Dr. Orhan Tatar, announced that the Marmara fault could produce an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 with 250 years of accumulated stress. Tatar continued his warning with the following statements: "Every year, 2.4 centimeters of energy is accumulating, and it is moving 2.5 centimeters to the west each year. This fault will break the moment its elastic limit is exceeded."

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A new warning has been issued regarding the earthquake reality in the Marmara Region. AFAD Earthquake and Risk Reduction General Director Prof. Dr. Orhan Tatar made important reminders about the earthquake risk in the region.



The 2nd Council Meeting of the Marmara Municipalities Union, chaired by Bursa Metropolitan Mayor Mustafa Bozbey, was held at the Merinos Atatürk Congress and Culture Center (AKKM) Hüdavendigar Hall. At the meeting attended by AFAD Earthquake and Risk Reduction General Director Prof. Dr. Orhan Tatar, Marmara Disaster Risk Reduction Department Head Gökhan Yılmaz, and mayors, the topic of disaster management in the Marmara Region was discussed.



Moving westward, it could produce an earthquake up to 7.8 when it breaks


"MARMARA FAULT CAN PRODUCE A 7.8 EARTHQUAKE"



Stating that the Marmara fault, which has been accumulating energy for 250 years, could produce an earthquake of 7.8, AFAD Earthquake and Risk Reduction General Director Prof. Dr. Orhan Tatar said, "The area between the 1999 Izmit Earthquake and the 1912 Mürefte (Şarköy) earthquakes has not yet broken. It doesn't matter whether it breaks all at once or in several pieces. Ultimately, it is accumulating energy and will break one day. It accumulates energy at a rate of 2.5 centimeters every year, moving 2.5 centimeters westward each year. This fault will break the moment its elastic limit is exhausted. Looking at this, there is a 250-year accumulation. So far, it has shifted between 6 to 7 meters. If you remember, on August 17, the bending of the rails on the railway happened this way. If you ask what magnitude of earthquake this corresponds to, it can produce an earthquake ranging from 7.2 to 7.8, depending on the mechanism of the break," he said.



"FEBRUARY 6 DID NOT FORGIVE ANY MISTAKES"



Pointing out the February 6 earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş, Prof. Dr. Tatar said, "When I start talking about February 6, my throat tightens and my eyes fill with tears. I feel many pains in my heart. I worked for 77 days at the AFAD Disaster Coordination Center. With that adrenaline, I tried to rush to many things without sleep. I wish we hadn't lost even a single life. February 6 really did not forgive any mistakes. Therefore, 85 million people need to put their hats in front of them and think about where we made mistakes. For us, August 17 was actually a turning point, but we saw that it was not a turning point on February 6," he said.



Moving westward, it could produce an earthquake up to 7.8 when it breaks


"BURSA IS ONE OF THE PLACES I AM CONCERNED ABOUT"



Highlighting that Bursa has a high earthquake risk, Prof. Dr. Tatar said, "There are not only active faults within Marmara. There are also active faults south of Marmara. While we are focused on the Marmara Earthquake, we may face another earthquake one day. I do not want to scare my Mayor Mustafa, but Bursa is one of the places I am most concerned about. The 1855 Bursa earthquake was caused by the Uluabat fault," he stated.



"WE NEED TO ALLOCATE MORE RESOURCES FOR DISASTER PREVENTION INVESTMENTS"



Stating that more resources should be allocated for disaster prevention investments, Marmara Municipalities Union and Bursa Metropolitan Mayor Mustafa Bozbey said:



"It is our duty to leave disaster-prepared cities for future generations. Our willingness to work together is a testament to our belief in this. We must implement our preparations in an integrated manner. We should think of the cities in Marmara as a whole and prepare accordingly. We know that the resources allocated for disaster management only prevent a very small portion of disasters. We must change this action. We need to allocate more resources for preventive investments to make our cities ready for disasters. We must not forget that it is possible to minimize the effects of a potential disaster and prevent losses. Disaster containers should be present in every neighborhood, and we need to be prepared for disaster volunteer training. We must be absolutely prepared for disasters. To be able to provide services and maintain financial discipline, the municipal budget also needs to be managed in a healthy way."



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