06.02.2025 08:50
Two years ago today, our country was shaken by earthquakes measuring 7.7 and 7.6 that affected 11 provinces. The earthquakes resulted in the loss of more than 53,000 lives and directly impacted 14 million people. On the anniversary of the major earthquake, Prof. Dr. Naci Görür, who continues to issue warnings, pointed out three provinces that are at the highest risk of earthquakes.
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February 6, 2023 marks the anniversary of the major earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş that took 53,000 lives. Although the pain is still fresh, Prof. Dr. Naci Görür, who frequently warns about earthquakes, made statements on the anniversary of the major earthquakes.
Speaking to NTV, Görür stated that the probability of an earthquake occurring in Marmara within 30 years is 47%.
"THE FEBRUARY 6 EARTHQUAKES WERE NOT A SURPRISE"
Görür, who said, "The earthquake in the Southeast was not a surprise for us," continued:
"We were expecting this earthquake and we were saying it. Local government, central government, and the public all knew. If the local governments in the Southeast had intensified their efforts to prepare this area for an earthquake, would we have had 99 and 2023? Would so many of our people have died? We chased after 3-5 contractors. We are all guilty."
WHICH CITIES ARE AT RISK OF EARTHQUAKE?
In response to the question "Where is the nearest danger?", Prof. Dr. Naci Görür gave the following answer:
"The location of the Yedisu fault between Erzincan and Bingöl Karlıova... In other words, Bingöl Karlıova, as well as the Tunceli region and the eastern parts of Erzincan, are among the places we foresee earthquakes. Because the last earthquake here was in the 1790s. This fault produces an earthquake every 250 years, and it has been 250 years. So, it is coming around 2030. When this area produces an earthquake, Erzincan, Bingöl Pülümür will be affected."
Pointing out the area between Bingöl Karlıova and Bingöl Göynük, Görür said, "An earthquake occurred here around 1866-1860. This area has not broken. Thirdly, the Arabian plate moved northward with nearly 10 meters of displacement in the last major earthquakes. The Eastern Anatolian fault broke. However, the Bitlis Zagros thrust zone has not produced an earthquake. Adıyaman, Siirt, Diyarbakır, and Hakkari have become compressed. An earthquake may have been brought forward. If we think of a place expecting an earthquake, we should not overlook this area." he stated.
"THE PROBABILITY OF AN EARTHQUAKE IN MARMARA IS 47%"
Stating that an earthquake is definitely expected in the Marmara Region, Görür continued:
"We are not even debating that. All data shows that there will be an earthquake greater than 7 in the Sea of Marmara. American researchers Parsons and colleagues studied historical earthquakes to determine when an earthquake might occur and stated that since 1999, the probability of an earthquake greater than 7 in Marmara is 64%, which was revised to 47% last year. This means that the probability of an earthquake occurring in this region within 30 years is 47%. This is a very high probability. This is no joke. We must immediately prepare this region for an earthquake."
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