Polish Opposition Weighs Coalition Options As Ruling Pis Falls Short In Election

Poland's three main opposition parties won a combined parliamentary majority in the country's weekend elections, according to a new Ipsos poll published Monday, leaving the ruling party apparently unable to form a government.

The Ipsos late poll done for three Polish TV stations found the ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) won 36.6%, the opposition Civic Coalition (KO) 31%, Third Way 13.5%, the New Left 8.6%, and far-right Confederation 6.4%.

The PiS was heading for 198 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament (Sejm), down 35 seats from 2019 and short of the 231 needed for a majority. The far-right Confederation was predicted to get 14 seats, while KO was seen to have 161 seats, Third Way 57, and the New Left 30, giving the latter three a combined majority of 248.

There was record-high turnout of almost 73%. A larger proportion of 18-29 year-olds turned out to vote than over-60s, Ipsos said. Poles voted in 30,000 polling stations, with 600,000 expats registered to vote.

Sylwester Marciniak, chairman of the National Electoral Commission, said the final, official voting results will be known no later than Tuesday, before 12 noon.

Turnout for a constitutional referendum, which took place alongside the parliamentary elections, was 40%, according to an exit poll done by Ipsos. This means that its results are not binding.

Opposition confident

"For us it's obvious that the (government) coalition will be us, the Third Way and the Left," said Borys Budka, head of the KO parliamentary faction.

But Andrzej Duda, the PiS-friendly president, could make it difficult for them to govern. Duda will be head of state for two more years, and during this time will be able to veto laws. To override the president's veto, 276 out of 460 MPs are needed. KO, Third Way, and the New Left are 28 votes short of that number.

On radio RMF FM, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on Monday appealed to Duda for dialogue and ruled out a potential coalition with the PiS. "Those who voted for us want a change of government," said the leader of PSL, the People's Party and main player in the Third Way.

"The president has the right to indicate who he considers the right candidate to form the government, but not the president's bad will. I'm sure he will show common sense and responsibility," said Donald Tusk of the Civic Coalition.

PiS at a disadvantage

"No matter how you look at it, we won. We will see when the seats are divided whether there will be any room to continue the game," Joachim Brudzinski, head of the PiS's electoral staff, told RMF FM.

The PiS's weakness was due by the strong results for the Third Way, with many KO voters voting tactically for the centrists, plus the collapse of Confederation's vote from a high of 14% in opinion polls in the summer.

When asked who the PiS would form a coalition with, Brudzinski said it could talk to PSL. "If we are to think about creating a coalition, it is natural that we will talk to PSL," he said.

PSL ran in the elections in a coalition with Szymon Holownia's Polska 2050. They said they do not intend to form a coalition with the PiS.

Brudzinski said that for him the obvious candidate for prime minister is the incumbent Mateusz Morawiecki.

But, crucially, the Constitution does not regulate who the president appoints as prime minister. Typically, it is the leader of the party that wins the most votes. This happens especially when the party has an absolute majority of seats, but if the party does not have a clear majority, the president can appoint a representative of the coalition, but is not obligated to.

It may turn out that the president will not appoint a government at all or the one appointed will not receive a vote of confidence, and then the Sejm appoints the government.

If these scenarios end in failure, the Constitution provides for the president to shorten the term of office of the Sejm and order fresh elections. This may happen also in a situation where the government is formed by opposition parties, but they lack the majority to override the president's veto, something that appears quite likely to happen. ​ -