24.04.2025 15:32
The earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2 that occurred off the coast of Silivri, Istanbul, was predicted 20 days ago by earthquake expert Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy. In a live broadcast, he stated, "I expect an earthquake storm between Armutlu and Mudanya. There is a fault line from Esenköy to Armutlu. Hot waters are flowing. I initially said it would be between 6.5 and 7.0, but my current opinion is that many small earthquakes are happening here, and the faults may break in small increments."
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Yesterday, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Silivri, Istanbul, caused great panic, with a total of 266 aftershocks occurring until the morning hours.
"THERE ARE THOSE WHO SPEAK BY HEART"
Earthquake Expert Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy, who predicted the earthquake that caused great fear among Istanbul residents 20 days in advance, made striking statements during a live broadcast on Sözcü TV. Üşümezsoy stated that the Adalar fault is dead and said he does not expect a major earthquake in Istanbul. Highlights from Üşümezsoy’s evaluations are as follows: "There are 2 faults here, the Kumburgaz fault is 25 km long. There was also a fault on the wall of the Silivri basin. In this earthquake, an area larger than 200 km has been torn apart. We had said this. After an earthquake of the same magnitude occurs in the same place I mentioned, many friends who speak by heart make explanations based on fault models that are not accepted in the scientific world.
"THEY DON'T MENTION THE 1894 EARTHQUAKE BUT TALK ABOUT THE 1766 EARTHQUAKE"
Ronald Armijo, a scientist who works on these fault models, said, "The Tekirdağ - Silivri fault broke 60 km in 1912, therefore the claim of a 7.4 magnitude earthquake from Yeşilköy to Gaziköy is nonsense." The fault broke in the Çınarcık Basin in 1894. There is a 50 km long fault that has not broken. Naci Görür also reminded Armijo's studies on behalf of TÜBİTAK. This fault does not extend from Silivri to Yeşilköy. This fault ends in Büyükçekmece. The Adalar fault has been dead for 10 million years. The fault that broke in Çınarcık in 1894. They do not mention the 1894 earthquake but talk about the 1766 earthquake. The biggest earthquake was in 1894. Then the claim that an earthquake occurs every 250 years is thrown in the trash. At the point where it was said that a 110 km fault would break in front of Gaziköy, 60 km has broken, and there is no fault in the rest.
"CELAL ŞENGÖR HAS ABANDONED HIS CLAIM"
Celal Şengör said, "A fault will break from Gelibolu to Bolu within 2 months." The world's greatest seismologist Nicholas Ambresey said, "I studied the 1509 earthquake. We would see the frozen effects of the earthquake in the Galata Tower and Rumeli Hisarı." Therefore, the 1509 earthquake was abandoned. Murat Bardakçı and Erhan Afyoncu also agreed with me. Earthquake expert Dan Mckenzie said, "If you say there will be a 7.9 or 8.1 magnitude earthquake in Marmara, it has neither happened in the past nor will it happen in the future. If that were the case, the city would be catastrophically destroyed." There is no fault leading to the Adalar; it is a dead fault. The Adalar fault is a fault that stretches and collapses like the Santorini fault. When Naci Görür said there is a 110 km fault and when it breaks, there will be a 7.4 magnitude earthquake, Ronald Armijo said, "The 60 km fault in the Tekirdağ basin broke in 1912. You cannot hatch a chick from an egg that has already hatched," and they fell silent.
When Celal Şengör said, "The Adalar fault will break," Armijo said, "The Çınarcık fault broke in 1894; there is no risk in the Adalar Fault." There is no fault from Kumburgaz Basin to Yeşilköy. The North Anatolian fault passes from Yalova-Çınarcık and in front of Marmara Island. The Adalar Fault, which goes north, and the Silivri North Edge Fault, there is no fault passing through there. All of them are scientifically garbage faults. Armijo said about the group that claims there will be two 7.4 magnitude earthquakes within 30 years, "I worked with this group, but this group knows neither faults nor earthquakes."
"ANOTHER 6.2 COULD HAPPEN IN ISTANBUL"
I expect an earthquake storm between Armutlu and Mudanya. There is a fault going from Esenköy to Armutlu. Hot waters are flowing. I previously did a simulation for this area. I said it would be between 6.5 and 7.0, but my current opinion is that many earthquakes are happening here. It does not create a focus. It causes small faults to break. For a large earthquake to occur, there must be a large, straight fault. I was worried about a reverse fault, but there will not be a destructive earthquake affecting Istanbul. It will trigger landslides here. There is potential in this fault; another 6.2 could happen. It could trigger landslides along the coastline.
20 DAYS BEFORE HE HAD MARKED SILIVRI
On April 3, Şener Üşümezsoy, who gave an interview to CGTN Türk, stated, "There could be an earthquake of 6.0 - 6.5 magnitude in Silivri. But in general, a major earthquake is not expected."
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