SGK expert Murat Bal evaluated possible scenarios regarding the minimum wage for Haberler.com: There are two important crossroads here.

As the discussions about the minimum wage continue to be on the agenda with the new year approaching, the Minimum Wage Determination Commission will announce its final decision after four meetings. Murat Bal, a Social Security Expert and guest of Melis Yaşar, the moderator of the program published on Haberler.com, evaluated the possible scenarios for the minimum wage in 2025.

"THERE ARE TWO IMPORTANT CROSSROADS"

Stating that the current minimum wage of 17,002 lira has seen a nearly 40% decline in purchasing power compared to January, Bal said, "There are two important crossroads here. Will the government base its decision on the revised inflation rate of 44% that will occur by the end of the 12th month, or will it make an increase based on the inflation it aims for in 2025?"

"IF THE INCREASE IS MADE ACCORDING TO THE TARGET, THIS FIGURE WILL PASS OVER THE MINIMUM WAGE EARNER LIKE A ROLLER"

Bal stated that the inflation above 40% that occurred in 2024 has eroded the current minimum wage, saying, "If we make an increase considering the targeted inflation for the next year without taking into account the inflation above 40% that has eroded it, this figure around 44% will pass over the minimum wage earner like a roller. The targeted inflation is around 21-22%. That's the plain truth."

"INCREASES SHOULD BE MADE BASED ON ACTUAL INFLATION"

Bal expressed that negotiations should be conducted based on actual inflation, stating, "Because it is the inflation in 2024 that erodes this salary. The inflation rate in 2025 does not affect us right now. It is just a target for us, not something that has been realized. Therefore, the increase should be made based on the actual inflation. At the very least, I believe that negotiations should start from this point."

"MINIMUM WAGE SHOULD BE 25,000 LIRA"

Bal said, "In this context, I think the minimum wage should be around 25,000 lira. If we consider the targeted inflation, then the minimum wage seems to be around 21,000 lira, at most 22,000 lira."