27.04.2026 15:50
According to the scientific study, while the February 6 earthquakes propagated through the weaker Karasu Valley, it was stated that significant energy has accumulated along the Amanos fault, which has not ruptured for approximately 1,500 years, indicating a risk of an earthquake larger than magnitude 7.
A critical study regarding the February 6 earthquakes has been conducted. According to the study, the earthquake followed the Karasu Valley, which is weaker and more prone to fracturing. However, it was noted that the unbroken Amanos line contains approximately 1,500 years of accumulated energy, pointing to a risk of an earthquake larger than magnitude 7.
THE EARTHQUAKE PREFERRED THE KARASU VALLEY
The study, published in the March 2026 issue of the Geophysical Journal International, was signed by Prof. Dr. Erhan Altunel from Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Prof. Dr. Cengiz Yıldırım from Istanbul Technical University, and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özgür Kozacı from the Pacific Gas and Electric Company in the USA.
In the article titled "The February 6 earthquake rupture at the Türkoğlu junction: An example of the path of least resistance for rupture propagation," it was stated that the earthquake faced two different routes when it reached the Türkoğlu region. One was the direction of İskenderun over the Amanos Mountains, and the other was the Hatay-Amul Valley line along the Karasu Valley. According to the examinations, the earthquake followed the Karasu Valley line, which is weaker and more prone to fracturing.
THE CRUSTAL STRUCTURE WAS DECISIVE
According to a report in Habertürk, the study emphasized that the main reason for this preference was the difference in crustal properties. It was stated that the Amanos Mountains showed high resistance due to their thick and solid rock structure, whereas the Karasu Valley has a thinner, more fractured, and weaker structure. Therefore, it was noted that the earthquake energy progressed along the easier-to-break Karasu line.
1,500 YEARS OF ENERGY ACCUMULATION IN THE AMANOS LINE
The most striking finding of the study concerned the Amanos line, which the earthquake did not prefer. It was recorded that no major earthquake has occurred along this fault segment between Türkoğlu and Osmaniye for approximately 1,500 years, and a significant amount of energy has accumulated during this period. The study stated that based on the annual movement rate, approximately 7 meters of stress accumulation has occurred in this region, and the 2023 earthquakes added additional stress to this line.
WARNING OF AN EARTHQUAKE LARGER THAN MAGNITUDE 7
Experts emphasized that this accumulation indicates a risk of an earthquake larger than magnitude 7. They noted that caution should be exercised, especially in the İskenderun Gulf, Adana, and surrounding settlements.
CALL FOR URGENT PRECAUTIONS
The study also stated that earthquakes can change direction not only based on the location of fault lines but also on the structural properties of the crust, and it warned that urgent preparation and precautionary measures are needed for the region.