07.12.2025 15:31
A comprehensive analysis published in RealClearWorld, followed by influential think tanks in the United States, revealed that during a period when the Ukraine War has evolved into a frozen conflict, Turkey has become the "mandatory center" of the Black Sea security architecture. The analysis emphasized that Ankara is the only functioning balancing element that determines the dynamics in the region.
RealClearWorld, which is closely followed by decision-makers and think tanks in the USA, defined Turkey as the "necessary center" of the Black Sea security architecture in its comprehensive analysis regarding the future of the Ukraine War.
TURKEY'S STRATEGIC WEIGHT IS INDISPENSABLE FOR THE REGION
The analysis written by Turkish foreign policy expert Emir Abbas Gürbüz reveals that as the war drags into a frozen conflict model, the balances in the region are being reshaped around Ankara. According to Gürbüz, the situation on the ground does not open the door to either Moscow's definitive victory or Kiev's complete restoration of territorial integrity; this reality elevates Turkey's strategic weight to an indispensable position for the region.
Military assessments indicate that the front line has reached a critical threshold after four years. Ukraine's dependence on external sources for air defense, Russia's depletion in manpower and logistics, and the inability of both sides to make progress on wide fronts are cited as the main reasons for the likelihood of a frozen conflict. This situation indicates that the war has entered a phase that will be shaped diplomatically rather than through total military struggle.
THE 28-POINT PLAN OF THE USA: KOREAN-STYLE DE FACTO DIVISION
The 28-point US plan included in the analysis is evaluated as a framework that will keep Ukraine in a "gray zone" status for many years. The plan effectively eliminates Ukraine's NATO membership while leaving the legal status of the occupied regions ambiguous. Gürbüz interprets this situation as a "Korean-style de facto division." The permanent nature of the front lines and the open-ended structure of the ceasefire strengthen the idea that the war will result in an uncertain interim status.
LEGAL AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS IN THE BLACK SEA ARE INCREASING
This new situation creates legal and geopolitical chaos in the Black Sea. In a system where maritime jurisdictions are determined according to land borders, the entrapment of Crimea and the Sea of Azov's coasts between de facto situations and legal status makes maritime areas contentious. Gürbüz states that this has created a wide risk area ranging from energy exploration activities to pipelines, port security, and grain corridors. In this environment, Turkey's stability in implementing the Montreux Convention emerges as the most stable element standing within the Black Sea security framework.
"THERE IS A GAP IN NATO'S DETERRENCE, TURKEY IS THE ONLY FUNCTIONING BALANCE"
The analysis emphasizes Romania and Bulgaria's limited naval capacity while stating that NATO is struggling to establish deterrence in the Black Sea. This situation transforms Turkey into the only functioning balance mechanism in the region due to its military capabilities, diplomatic contact channels, and geographical position. According to Gürbüz, there is no other actor within the alliance that can fill Turkey's place.
"TURKISH GATEWAY" MODEL: ANKARA AS A BRIDGE IN REGIONAL INTEGRATION
The most striking part of the analysis is the "Turkish Gateway" model introduced by Gürbüz. According to Gürbüz, Ukraine is trapped between a hard isolation line that leaves Kiev alone with Western integration directly opposing Moscow. The way out of this deadlock passes through an intermediate ground that does not provoke a harsh response from Moscow but does not sever Kiev's connections to the West. Gürbüz points out that Ukraine can also produce sustainable integration through Ankara, citing Georgia's advancement of its ties with NATO and the EU through Ankara and Central Asian countries strengthening their relations with Turkey through the Turkic States Organization. In this model, Turkey is positioned not as the forward line of the West but as an acceptable interface that can manage both competition and cooperation in the region simultaneously.
WASHINGTON'S NEW APPROACH INCREASES TURKEY'S IMPORTANCE
Gürbüz states that the change in administration in the USA has increased Turkey's importance. The Trump administration's approach to foreign policy, focused on calculations, has led to a strategy that stays away from direct engagement along the Black Sea-Caucasus line. Therefore, Washington sees managing the Ukraine file through Ankara as a low-cost and high-impact option. The analysis shows that this approach has now removed Turkey from the "difficult partner" category and made it a carrier element of regional power projection.
"TURKEY IS THE ONLY VIABLE INTERFACE BASED ON THE REALITY ON THE GROUND"
In a statement to Haberler.com, Emir Abbas Gürbüz, Director of the Center for Foreign Policy and Security Studies and Secretary General of the Turkish Atlantic Council, stated that Turkey's role in Ukraine's future is a "choice based on the reality on the ground, far from political romanticism." Gürbüz emphasized that Ukraine's direct orientation towards the West creates a perception of threat from Moscow, while complete detachment weakens Kiev, stating:
"Turkey is the only viable interface in the midst of this dilemma. The concept of Turkish Gateway is a feasible strategic model that aligns with the reality on the ground rather than an abstract diplomatic proposal."
The analysis published in the USA reveals that Turkey is positioned as a rising power along the line extending from the Black Sea to the Caucasus in the new security order to be established after the Ukraine War.