23.04.2025 10:51
With the easing of tensions in the US-China trade war, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $94,000. Analysts are targeting over $100,000 in the long term and $95,000 in the short term, while the futures market is adopting a cautious stance.
Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $94,000 level on April 22, reaching its highest point in about 1.5 months, amid signs of easing in the US-China trade war and a record high for gold. Despite the overall optimism in the markets, the cautious stance of futures traders stands out. Experts agree that the $95,000 level could be seen in the short term.
Caution Prevails in the Futures Market
The price of Bitcoin has continued to rise, reaching $94,000, alongside positive signs that the recent trade tensions will ease. However, investors in the Bitcoin futures market remain cautious. Normally, the futures premium is expected to fluctuate between 5% and 10% under market conditions, but it is currently hovering around an annual rate of 6%. According to analysts, this situation may indicate that Bitcoin is beginning to diverge from stock market movements.
The inability of Bitcoin to maintain a position above $90,000 in March seems to have caused a kind of post-traumatic stress disorder among market participants. Particularly, Bitcoin's drop to $81,464 the day after approaching $95,000 on March 3 has led investors to act cautiously. Bitcoin, which reached an all-time high of $109,346 in January, is currently trading 16% below its peak.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated that the ongoing trade dispute with China is unsustainable, creating expectations for a reduction in tensions. In contrast, former US President Donald Trump accused Fed Chairman Jerome Powell of hindering economic growth due to high interest rate policies. While these discussions continue, investors are turning to short-term US Treasury bonds, which they see as a safe haven. The yield on 2-year bonds has decreased from around 4.04% to 3.81%.
On the other hand, Bitcoin's 6.3% increase during the same period is considered a remarkable performance in the markets. Looking at the data from the options market, the 25% delta skew indicator is found to be neutral at 2%. This situation reveals that large investors do not have a clear expectation that Bitcoin will rise above $95,000 in the short term.