The first hint regarding the minimum wage increase for the year 2025 has emerged.

While millions of employees are focused on the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which will convene in December, the strongest prediction for the minimum wage increase in 2025 has emerged from the SGK budget. Minimum wage increases have so far been made either in parallel with the inflation rate or 5-10 points above it. It is expected that the first data the commission will look at will be inflation.

27% INCREASE IN SGK BUDGET

Following the Central Government Budget prepared by the government, the Social Security Institution's (SGK) budget for 2025 has also been revealed. According to Habertürk's report, SGK's budget for 2025 indicates that the institution's revenues will increase by 27% to 4.7 trillion lira, while its expenditures will rise by 35% to 5.2 trillion lira. SGK's deficit for 2025 is projected to increase by 223% compared to this year's actual estimate, reaching 551.8 billion lira.

In the central government budget, it is projected that there will be 12.8 trillion lira in revenue and 14.7 trillion lira in expenditure in 2025. SGK's budget for next year corresponds to one-third of the central government budget.

The premiums paid to the Social Security Institution for 4/a (SSK) and 4/b (BAĞ-KUR) are determined directly based on the minimum wage. SGK's estimated premium revenues of 2 trillion 743.2 billion lira at the end of 2024 are expected to reach 3 trillion 522.9 billion lira in 2025. An increase of 28.4% in premium revenues is anticipated. On the other hand, economists indicate that the minimum wage, which is currently 17,002 TL, should see an increase of at least 40% or around 45% in the new year.

THE POSSIBILITY OF A 25% INCREASE IN MINIMUM WAGE HAS STRENGTHENED

It has been observed that the SGK budget targets were prepared based on a 25% increase in the minimum wage. Considering that part of the 28% increase in premium revenues will stem from the increase in employment, it has emerged that SGK's premium revenue target was set with an approximate 25% increase in the minimum wage for 2025.

The figures on the table for the increased minimum wage in 2025 are as follows:

According to the government's Medium-Term Program;

OVP Inflation Estimate: 41.5%

Minimum Wage Estimate: 24,058 TL

According to Reuters' inflation estimate

Reuters Inflation Estimate: 42.95%

Minimum Wage Estimate: 24,304 TL

According to the Financial Institutions Association's inflation estimate

Financial Institutions Association Inflation Estimate: 49.39%

Minimum Wage Estimate: 25,399 TL

According to the Central Bank's inflation expectation

Central Bank Survey: 43.14%

Minimum Wage Estimate: 24,336 TL

According to Anadolu Agency's inflation estimate

Anadolu Agency Inflation Estimate: 42.64%

Minimum Wage Estimate: 24,251 TL