27.07.2026 15:00
A climate report prepared by ITU researchers analyzing 75 years of data revealed that heatwaves in Turkey have reached record levels in recent years. Scientists stated that Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Konya, and İzmir are under great risk due to this change in the climate regime, warning that the number of extremely hot days could rise to up to 53 days per year, especially in İzmir.
A study presented by researchers from Istanbul Technical University (ITU) at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) Conference revealed that heat waves in Turkey have reached unprecedented levels in recent years. Future projections highlight the scale of the danger for five major cities.
MOST SEVERE HEATS IN 75 YEARS
The study, conducted by Prof. Dr. Barış Önol, a faculty member at the ITU Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Climate Science and Meteorology Engineering, and Meteorology Engineer Tolga Karakaya, examined the changes in heat waves in Turkey between 1950 and 2025.
Based on the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMId), the research showed that the summers of 2023 and 2025 witnessed the strongest heat waves in the last 75 years.
- Summer 2023: The magnitude of heat waves increased more than 7 times compared to the reference period.
- Summer 2025: The intensity of heat waves reached approximately 11 times the reference period.
- Summer 2024: The average summer temperature broke a record at 26.1 degrees Celsius.
FRIGHTENING REGIME CHANGE AFTER 2010
The research indicated a significant regime change in the intensity of heat waves after 2010. The average total intensity of annual heat waves increased to about 3 times the historical reference period. Experts noted that record-breaking average summer temperatures do not always perfectly coincide with the most severe heat waves; factors such as atmospheric blockages, sea surface temperatures, drought, and soil moisture complicate the process.
WARNING FROM SCIENTISTS: 5 CITIES AT GREAT RISK
Drawing attention to the fundamental change in the climate regime in Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean region, scientists issued warnings for five critical cities based on the pessimistic scenario of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The projections for provinces that were exposed to extreme heat waves on average only 3-5 days per year between 1976 and 2005 are as follows:
- Istanbul: In the near future (2021-2050), the number of hot days will rise to 16, and in the second half of the century (2051-2080), to 38 days.
- Ankara: Will increase to 16 days in the near future and 38 days in the second half of the century.
- Antalya: Will reach 18 days in the near future and 40 days in the second half of the century.
- Konya: Will rise to 16 days in the near future and 40 days in the second half of the century.
- Izmir: Stands out as the city with the highest risk. The number of extreme hot days, expected to rise to 23 in the near future, will skyrocket to 53 days in the second half of the century.