12.09.2025 12:00
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) September 2025 Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation has risen to 29.86%. The policy interest rate expectation is at 40.56%, while the year-end dollar/TL forecast is 43.85, and the 12-month ahead expectation is at 48.96. The growth expectation for 2025 has increased to 3.2%.
According to the results of the September 2025 "Market Participants Survey" published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the year-end inflation expectation has risen to 29.86%. Participants forecast the year-end dollar/TL exchange rate to be 43.85, and for 12 months later, they expect it to be 48.96. The policy interest rate expectation was realized at 40.56%.
INFLATION EXPECTATION INCREASED
The participants' consumer inflation (CPI) expectation for the end of the current year was 29.69% in the previous survey period, while it is 29.86% in this period.
- 12-month CPI expectation is 22.25%
- 24-month CPI expectation is recorded as 16.78%.
According to the survey results, the majority of participants expect inflation to occur in the range of 21-23.99% in 12 months.
INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION 40.56%
The overnight interest rate expectation for the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market is 40.48%, while the CBRT policy interest rate expectation for the September Monetary Policy Committee meeting is set at 40.56%.
DOLLAR/TL EXPECTATION 43.85
The participants' year-end dollar/TL exchange rate expectation is 43.85. In the previous survey period, this expectation was at the level of 43.96. The exchange rate forecast for 12 months later was announced as 48.96.
GROWTH EXPECTATION INCREASED
The participants' GDP growth forecasts have also been revised upwards.
- The growth expectation for 2025 has risen from 2.9% to 3.2%.
- The growth expectation for 2026 remained stable at 3.7%.
69 PARTICIPANTS IN THE SURVEY
The September 2025 Market Participants Survey was answered by 69 individuals consisting of representatives from the real sector and the financial sector.