After the inflation forecast, the calculations have changed! Here is the figure being discussed for the minimum wage.

The expectations for year-end inflation by the government and economic management have started to become clear. Most recently, in the new Medium-Term Program, it is estimated that year-end inflation will decrease to 41.5 percent.

ERDOĞAN SAID "WE WILL NOT CRUSH THE WORKERS"

The salaries of millions of workers, minimum wage earners, civil servants, and retirees are evaluated based on inflation figures. While retirees and civil servants receive raises every six months, the minimum wage increase is determined annually. President Erdoğan has repeatedly stated in previous statements that they will not allow workers to be crushed under inflation.

So, according to the inflation estimate in the MTP, what will be the rate of increase in the minimum wage at the end of the year? Will there be a welfare bonus? How much will the minimum wage, which is currently 17,002 TL, be in the new period?

Social Security Advisor Emin Yılmaz, who explained all the questions related to the subject, used the following statements: "In the Medium-Term Program (MTP) covering the years 2025-2027, it is aimed to reduce the inflation rate to single-digit levels and achieve stability at these levels by continuing the disinflation process that started in June 2024, especially in terms of price stability criterion.

In the section on managed and directed prices, it is stated that there will be an increase in compliance with inflation estimates and targets, a regulated path will be followed with minimum wage increases to prevent wage-price spiral, and with the determined stance in monetary policy, domestic demand will be balanced, the stable improvement in exchange rates will continue, and the monthly inflation trend will continue to decrease for the rest of the year, and it is predicted that the annual increase rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will decrease to 41.5 percent at the end of the year.

When we pay attention to the past statements of the government's economic authorities, we can see that a wage policy is being pursued to prevent low-income earners and retirees from being crushed by inflation. Considering that the year-end inflation is targeted at around 41.5%, I believe that the minimum wage will not fall below the specified figures.

WILL THERE BE A WELFARE BONUS?

Yes, it is possible. The minimum wage commission will meet at the beginning of December. A commission of 15 people, consisting of 5 labor unions, 5 employer unions, and 5 representatives from the Ministry of Labor, will come together.

According to the regulation published in the Official Gazette dated August 1, 2004, and numbered 25540, the minimum wage is defined as the wage that is paid to workers for a normal working day and is sufficient to meet the worker's essential needs such as food, housing, clothing, health, transportation, and culture at the prices of the day.

When we look at the principles of determining wages, the social and economic situation of the country, the cost of living indexes for wage earners, the general situation of the wages actually paid, and the living conditions are taken into consideration. When we look at previous minimum wage determinations, we observe that an additional amount was added as a welfare bonus above inflation.

HOW MUCH WILL THE MINIMUM WAGE BE?

When estimating the minimum wage, especially the inflation data, cost of living index, and most importantly, whether the minimum wage will be determined 'once or twice for the year 2025' are important. According to the MTP, the expected inflation for 2024 is 41.5%, and for 2025, it is targeted at 17.5%.

In light of these data, I believe that there will be a difference of around 45% to 50% in the minimum wage. In monetary terms, we can say that the minimum wage will be around 24,500 TL to 25,000 TL.

WILL THIS BE THE HIGHEST RATE OF INCREASE?

Yes, especially here we can say that inflation is the determining factor. According to the MTP, the targeted inflation rates are 41.5% for 2024, 17.5% for 2025, 9.7% for 2026, and 7.00% for 2027. It is thought that the highest rate of increase will be this year, as the targeted inflation is in a declining trend."